Page 76 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Low fertility intentions in China

to two- (Central Committee of the Communist Party of (i.e., the desired number of children to have) and tempo
China, 2016) and three-child (Central Committee of intention (i.e., when to have them) (Balbo et al., 2013).
the Communist Party of China, 2021) policies, allowing One’s discretion in deciding whether to pursue childbirth
couples to have more than one child. However, scholars has been afforded by the widely available, effective methods
hold differing views on the effectiveness of this policy. of contraception, allowing couples to decide when to have
Supporters argue that it will lead to a significant increase children and how many children they desire to have. In
in the TFR and slow down population aging (Zhai et al., this study, fertility intention refers specifically to a person’s
2014), while other researchers argue against it. The desire to have a certain number of children, emphasizing
opponents believe that there is more to it than simply quantum intention over tempo intention.
relieving the restriction on the permissible number of As a component of fertility decision-making, fertility
childbearing, citing factors such as the high cost of raising intention is considered a predictor of childbearing
children and work stability (Yang et al., 2023). Indeed, behavior (Schoen et al., 1999). Ajzen (1991) posits that
despite the policy’s incentives for families to have children, intention is an important antecedent to the subsequent
there is a growing social consensus in China that the two- behavior, thereby ascribes meaning to the intention of
child policy has not achieved the expected increase in TFR. fertility. It means that fertility intention is a vital precursor
According to Shreffler et al. (2016), two of the several to subsequent fertility behavior and, consequently, the
reasons for low fertility rates are medical infertility or a fertility rate. Notwithstanding the extensive discourse
lack of fertility intentions. Unlike couples experiencing challenging the predictive power of fertility intentions
medical infertility, who may seek medical support, those on actual behavior (Quesnel-Vallée & Morgan, 2003;
with low fertility intentions make their behavioral choices Spéder & Kapitány, 2009), a substantial body of empirical
voluntarily (Morgan & Rackin, 2010). Changing their evidence demonstrates that fertility intentions function
intentions requires effective policy intervention that as a reliable predictor of future fertility decisions (Balbo
could address the underlying factors that impact fertility et al., 2013; Li & Xu, 2022; Morgan & Taylor, 2006; Schoen
intentions. Therefore, this study recognizes the need for a et al., 1999).
deeper understanding of the factors influencing couples’ Furthermore, as a factor that influences fertility behavior
intentions to have a second child or additional child, itself, fertility intention is influenced by various underlying
particularly among parents of one child, who are more factors. Some of the commonly identified factors include
likely to expand their families as they have not opposed socioeconomics (Li & Xu, 2022), demographics (Jeon
parenthood from the outset. This study sought to uncover et al., 2021), and subjective parenting (Peng et al., 2023).
factors that may have been overlooked by past research or
According to Zhu et al. (2022), the second child’s fertility
policymakers and are poised for exploration. It anticipates intention can be gauged by the question “Do you intend
the emergence of insights into the phenomenon through
themes that transcend the overt textual meaning of social to have another child?”, which can be responded with
media threads. Specifically, this research sought to address either “intend,” “do not intend,” or “uncertain.” However,
the question, “Why do some Chinese individuals choose as this article just offers a qualitative exploration of low
not to have a second child?” by conducting a reflexive fertility intentions, it primarily reflects a less definitive
and non-categorical inclination of “do not intend.” For this
thematic analysis (RTA) of social media threads.
reason, we define the low side of fertility intention further.
At the individual level, each person’s decisions hold the Low fertility intention reflects the lack of desire or weak
potential to shape a sustainable future. Even seemingly inclination to have a certain number of children, as in the
minor choices, when aggregated, can exert a profound context of our present work in reflecting China’s second
societal impact. This underscores the critical role of child policy; the certain number of children is no more
individual agency in driving sustainable development than two. To rephrase it, we define low fertility intention
through personal intentions and behaviors. The insights as the varying degrees of reluctance, including outright
into the factors behind low fertility intentions provide refusal, to have a second child.
a crucial foundation for designing family planning
policies that align demographic trends with long-term 1.2. Review of factors influencing low fertility
sustainability goals. intentions
Research on fertility intentions has consistently identified
1.1. Definition of fertility intention
multiple factors that shape individuals’ decisions regarding
Fertility intentions – often related to fertility desire, attitude, family expansion. These factors operate at various levels,
and behavior – can be examined as quantum intention including individual (micro), relational (meso), and

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 70 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.5124