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International Journal of Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Assessments of mortality at oldest-old ages by

province in China's 2000 and 2010 censuses

1
1
3
4
2
Danan Gu , Runlong Huang , Kirill Andreev , Matthew E. Dupre , Yaer Zhuang , and
4
Hongyan Liu
1 United Nations Population Division, 2 UN Plaza, DC2-1910, New York, NY 10017, USA
2 School of Social Development, Nanjing Normal University, 122 Ninghai Road, Gulou District, Nanjing,
Jiangsu Province, China
3 Duke Clinical Research Institute & Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708,
USA
4 China Population and Development Research Center, 12 Dahuisi Road, Haidian, Beijing, China

Abstract: This study examined the possible underestimation and age-trajectories of mortality at old-
est-old ages in China’s 2000 and 2010 censuses. By linking logit-transformed conditional probabilities of
dying from 13 countries with the highest data quality in the world, this study found that many Chinese
provinces had underestimations of mortality at oldest-old ages when a relatively lenient criterion was ap-
plied. When a relatively strict criterion was applied, most provinces had a 30% or more underestimation
in the probability of dying. We also investigated age trajectories of death rates after age 80 in these
two censuses by applying the Kannisto model. Results showed that the age trajectories were distorted in
most provinces after age 95. Overall, eastern-coastal provinces had higher data quality — in terms of low
underestimation rates and less distorted age trajectories — whereas western China had provinces with
problematic data. Females had greater rates of underestimation yet less distorted age-trajectories than
males; and the 2010 census had greater rates of underestimation yet less distorted age-trajectories than the
2000 census. We conclude that appropriate adjustments with simultaneous applications of the Kannisto
model are needed for direct estimates of mortality at oldest-old ages in the 2000 and 2010 censuses for
China and for its provinces.
Keywords: China, oldest-old, Kannisto model, logit, underestimation, death underreports, death rate,
provincial variation, census, age exaggeration, age misreporting

*Correspondence to: Danan Gu, United Nations Population Division, 2 UN Plaza, DC2-1910, New York, NY 10017,
USA; Email: gudanan@yahoo.com
Received: March 5, 2016; Accepted: April 20, 2016; Published Online: April 26, 2016
Copyright: © 2016 Danan Citation: Gu D, Huang R, Andreev K, et al. (2016). Assessments of mortality at oldest-old ages by province in Chi-
Gu, et al. This is an Open Ac- na's 2000 and 2010 censuses. International Journal of Population Studies, vol.2(2): 1–25.
cess article distributed under http://dx.doi.org/10.18063/IJPS.2016.02.008.
the terms of the Creative Com-
mons Attribution- NonCom- 1. Introduction
mercial 4.0 International Li-
cense (http://creativecommo- Research on mortality at oldest-old ages (ages 80 or older) has received increasing attention in
ns.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/),
permitting all non-commercial Western countries since the mid-1980s, with studies on age trajectories, the accuracy of data, and
use, distribution, and repro- levels of mortality (Kannisto, 1988, 1994; Kannisto, Lauristen, Thatcher et al., 1994; Kostaki, 2000;
duction in any medium, pro- Kostaki and Lanke, 2000; Jeune and Vaupel, 1995; Nagnur, 1986; Robine, Crimmins, Horiuchi et al.,
vided the original work is
properly cited. 2007; Robine, Vaupel, Jeune et al., 1997; Suzman, Willis and Manton, 1992; Thatcher, 1992;

International Journal of Population Studies | 2016, Volume 2, Issue 2 1