Page 76 - IJPS-8-2

International Journal of
Population Studies Projecting sex ratio at birth in Pakistan

Table D.2. Validation results of estimates based on the training set
Model validation Θ p,t δ α p,t
p
(Out‑of‑sample) 1995 2005 2015 1995 2005 2015
Median error 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000
Median absolute error 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000
Below 95% credible interval (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Above 95% credible interval (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Expected (%) ≤2.5 ≤2.5 ≤2.5 ≤2.5 ≤2.5 ≤2.5
Below 80% credible interval (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Above 80% credible interval (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Expected (%) ≤10 ≤10 ≤10 ≤10 ≤10 ≤10
Note: Error defines the differences between the model estimates (i.e., Θ or δ α ) obtained from the full and training datasets, and proportions refer
p,t
p p,t
to the proportions (%) of countries in which the median estimates from the full dataset fall below or above their respective 95% and 80% credible
intervals, respectively, in the training set.

Volume 8 Issue 2 (2022) 70 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i2.332