Page 71 - IJPS-7-2

International Journal of
Population Studies Age-adjusted measures for fertility transition

Figure 2. Sample distribution by age group and education status in Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe

and TMFRs trends continued post-1999 with the former Ghana’s 2008 ASMFRs for especially for age groups 25 – 29
indicating a continuous decline in marital fertility, while and 30 – 34 were notably lower than those in 2014. This is
the latter revealed a stalled transition. From 2005 to 2014, arguably the source of the higher the TMFR in 2014 than
Zimbabwe experienced rebounds in marital fertility rates, in 2008 in Ghana. Meanwhile, there were no differences in
a stark contrast with the accelerated decline depicted by the average number of CEB for all age groups between the
CEB. The mean CEB15-49 starts to capture the stall in GDHS2008 and GDHS2014 except the 45 – 49-year age
marital fertility transition of Zimbabwe about 10 years group. The CEB45-49 estimate for GDHS2014 was lower
after the TMFR did so. Just like the case in Rwanda, the than that for GDHS2008, thus giving the impression that
CEB 45-49 and CEB 15-49 measures were not sensitive to the completed fertility continued to decrease in Ghana which
occurrence of stalls and rapid decreases of marital fertility was contrary to the stall indicated by TMFRs.
in Zimbabwe. The fertility stall which occurred in Kenya in the early
2000s is a widely reported phenomenon in demographic
3.3. Age patterns of fertility literature. As also shown in this study, this stall was well
The trends presented in the preceding section can be defined among married women as reflected by the increase
further unpacked by analyzing the underlying age patterns in TMFRs between the KDHS1998 and KDHS2003. The
of fertility. This was accomplished by comparatively stall in the marital fertility transition of Kenya was likely
analyzing the differences in the age patterns of fertility because the ASMFRs for the 25 – 29, 30 – 34, 35 – 39, and 45
between successive DHS surveys. We draw particular – 49-year age groups were lower in KDHS1998 compared
attention to the inter-survey periods characterized by to the KDHS2003. On the contrary, the age patterns of
notable differences between CEB and TMFRs. These were average CEB were the same between the KDHS1998 and
2008 – 2014 in Ghana, 1998 – 2003 in Kenya, 2000 – 2005 the KDHS2003 from age group 15 – 19 to 35 – 39, and
in Rwanda, and the three inter-survey periods after 1999 slightly lower in the KDHS2003 for the 40 – 44 and 45 – 49
in Zimbabwe [Figure 4]. During all the periods, there were age groups.
stalls in marital fertility transition as shown by TMFRs, The notable increase in TMFR of Rwanda from the
while CEB45-49 indicated decreases in marital fertility. RDHS2000 to the RDHS2005 is well reflected in the

Volume 7 Issue 2 (2021) 65 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v7i2.354