Page 57 - IJPS-8-2

International Journal of

Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE
Levels and trends estimate of sex ratio at birth

for seven provinces of Pakistan from 1980
to 2020 with scenario-based probabilistic

projections of missing female birth to 2050: A
Bayesian modeling approach

2
Fengqing Chao *, Muhammad Asif Wazir , and Hernando Ombao 1
1
1 Statistics Program, Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division,
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
2 Population and Development Advisor (Freelance), Islamabad (ICT), Pakistan

Abstract

Most evidence on son preference in Pakistan is reflected in the higher child mortality
among females than males. The sex discrimination before birth is rarely reported
in Pakistan. This is the first study to quantify prenatal sex discrimination in Pakistan
on a subnational level. We provide annual estimates of the sex ratio at birth (SRB)
*Corresponding author: from 1980 to 2020 and scenario-based projections of the number of missing female
Fengqing Chao births up to 2050 by Pakistan province. The results are based on a comprehensive
(fengqing.chao@kaust.edu.sa) database consisting of 832,091 birth records from all available surveys and censuses.
Citation: Chao, F., Wazir, M.A., We adopted a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to synthesize different data
& Ombao, H. (2022). Levels and sources. We identified Balochistan with an existing imbalanced SRB since 1980.
trends estimate of sex ratio at birth
for seven provinces of Pakistan For the rest provinces without past or ongoing SRB inflation, we projected the
from 1980 to 2020 with scenario- largest female birth deficit to occur in Punjab in 2033 under the scenario that the
based probabilistic projections SRB transition process starts in 2021. We demonstrated important disparities in the
of missing female birth to 2050: occurrence and quantification of missing female births up to 2050.
A Bayesian modeling approach.
International Journal of Population
Studies, 8(2):51-70.
https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i2.332 Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model; Pakistan; Scenario-based projection; Sex ratio at
birth; Son preference; Sex-selective abortion; Subnational modeling; Time series models
Received: August 27, 2022
Accepted: November 14, 2022
Published Online: December 14,
2022 1. Introduction
Copyright: © 2022 Author(s). The ratio of the number of male live births to the number of female live birth,
This is an Open Access article namely, the sex ratio at birth (SRB), is an essential element in estimating and
distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution projecting population size and its dynamics. Furthermore, an imbalanced SRB in
License, permitting distribution, a population reflects discrimination and disadvantages that females face in social,
and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is political, economic, and cultural contexts (Gupta et al., 2003; Guilmoto, 2009). SRBs
properly cited. are distorted from their natural levels in several countries, primarily clustered in
Publisher’s Note: AccScience South Asia, East Asia, and East Europe. The imbalanced values reach as high as 1.2
Publishing remains neutral with (i.e., 120 male births per 100 female births) in certain regions (Attané & Guilmoto,
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional 2007; Chao et al., 2019a; Duthé et al., 2012; Goodkind, 2011; Guilmoto et al., 2009;
affiliations. Guilmoto, 2012; Guilmoto & Ren, 2011; Lin, 2009; Park & Cho, 1995). SRB is the

Volume 8 Issue 2 (2022) 51 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i2.332