Page 58 - IJPS-8-2

International Journal of
Population Studies Projecting sex ratio at birth in Pakistan

prime indicator of prenatal sex discrimination and sex Sirageldin, 1977; Sathar et al., 2015). Preference for male
imbalance in human populations. births in Pakistan stems from lineage, economic and social
The objectives of this study are (i) to provide annual conditions, caste, and identity. At least one son in a strongly
estimates of SRBs among seven provinces of Pakistan from patrilineal society is essential for living arrangements in
1980 to 2020, (ii) to provide scenario-based projections old age. One study suggested that the ideal family size
to 2050 using a reproducible Bayesian statistical model, in Pakistan (four children) has remained constant since
and (iii) to identify provinces with SRB imbalance. Our the 1970s; moreover, the ideal sex composition of the
children is more than 1 son (Wazir & Shaheen, 2016).
study has several contributions as a result of achieving the
research objectives. First, to the best of our knowledge, Son preference is evidenced by the excess mortality of
this is the first study on Pakistan SRB that has produced female children over male children under five in Pakistan,
provincial estimates and projections during 1980 – 2050. indicating possible differential treatment between girls and
Second, it is the 1 time Balochistan is identified with the boys in this age group (Alkema et al., 2014; Sathar et al.,
st
existence and transition process of the sex ratio imbalance 2015). The education attainment gap between females and
using a Bayesian model. Third, based on the SRB imbalance males is large in Pakistan. Between 2017 and 2018, 30% of
results of the Bayesian hierarchical time series model, young women (age 15 – 24) completed middle or higher
education compared to 50% of young men (National
we compute the number of missing female births over Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) [Pakistan] & ICF,
time in provinces with imbalanced SRB and quantify the 2019). Between 2018 and 2019, 36% of girls (ages 5 – 16)
female birth deficits in each Pakistan province. Our study
included seven provinces of Pakistan: Balochistan, Khyber were out of school versus 25% of boys (Pakistan Bureau of
Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Sindh, Gilgit Baltistan, Islamabad Statistics (PBS) 2019). However, little evidence of prenatal
(ICT), and Azad Jammu and Kashmir. The results for sex preference has been reported in Pakistan. The previous
Federally Administered Tribal Areas are omitted because studies identified no imbalanced SRB at the national level
of the unavailability of the longer time series data on SRB. (Zaidi & Morgan, 2016; Chao et al., 2019a). Other studies
suggested that, among couples in Pakistan, the desire for a
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. large family might dominate preferences for children of a
Section 1.1 provides the theoretical background of the particular type (De Tray, 1984). A high prevalence of sex-
study. Section 2.1 summarizes the database compiled selective abortion was identified in two rural districts in
for statistical modeling and Section 2.2 summarizes Balochistan province (Qayyum & Rehan, 2017). However,
the Bayesian statistical model used for provincial SRB the results mentioned above are based on survey data with
estimation and the post-modeling process (identifying small sample sizes.
provinces with imbalanced SRB and calculating the
number of missing female births). Section 3 presents the The national scale levels and trends in SRB can mask
SRB results by province, the provincial SRB imbalances, the disparity among subregions in a country. Even in
countries such as China and India, with an overall strong
the corresponding missing female births, and the scenario- preference for sons, the SRB is not imbalanced in every
based missing female birth projections. Sections 4 and 5 province or state (Chao & Yadav, 2019; Chao et al., 2020;
summarize the primary contributions and limitations and Ge et al., 2020; Jiang & Zhang, 2021). In Pakistan, a
conclude the study.
subnational level assessment of SRB is essential because
1.1. Theoretical background the demography, socioeconomic status, and cultures
(i.e., caste and ethnicity) are considerably heterogeneous.
Distortion in the SRB has been primarily attributed The latest estimates from the Pakistan Demographic
to three interlinked factors (Guilmoto, 2009; 2012): and Health Survey (DHS) 2017 – 2018 revealed a high
(1) Son preference, (2) technological advances in prenatal heterogeneous SRB across provinces: High inflation at
diagnosis, and (3) preferences for smaller family size and 1.16 in Balochistan, a roughly normal SRB in Punjab at
consequent fertility decline. In countries with a patrilineal 1.05, and a female bias in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
culture and shrinking family size, when prenatal sex (SRB is 0.91 and 0.95, respectively) (National Institute
determination and abortion technology are available, of Population Studies (NIPS) [Pakistan] & ICF, 2019).
couples practice sex-selective abortion to secure at least To the best of our knowledge, no study has provided the
one son. The SRB in such populations is male biased. SRB annual estimates of the provincial SRB in Pakistan using
imbalance has been reported in 12 countries/areas since all available data since 1980. To accurately determine
1970 (Chao et al., 2019a). whether the SRB is imbalanced in Pakistan and if so,
Pakistan is a country that has a strong preference where the imbalance occurs, it is essential to estimate the
for sons (Atif et al., 2016; Hussain et al., 2000; Khan & SRB on the subnational level.

Volume 8 Issue 2 (2022) 52 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i2.332