Page 169 - JCAU-7-2

Journal of Chinese
Architecture and Urbanism Mitigating the risks

from 371 in 2000. This number is projected to rise to 170,000 deaths, while the 2011 Fukushima earthquake and
706 by 2030 (United Nations, 2018). However, despite the subsequent tsunami caused 15,878 deaths, with 2,713
these economic benefits, urban concentration carries people reported missing and more than 340,000 displaced
significant risks that are often underestimated. One such (Wang et al., 2016).
risk is the heightened damage from natural hazards, such As urbanization increases, disease outbreaks
as hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and fires, because the have become an escalating concern. Densely packed
extent of damage tends to increase rapidly with population human population significantly increases the spread of
density (Zhang et al., 2007). communicable diseases, particularly waterborne illnesses,
Furthermore, agricultural subsidies implemented by in developing countries. For example, multiple cholera
most industrialized countries, alongside price controls on outbreaks in African cities such as Lomé and Tamatave
agricultural products for urban residents, have contributed suggest that reported epidemics in densely populated
to lower urban food prices (Zhao et al., 2014). Combined urban areas are often associated with low-lying land, where
with additional subsidies for medical care, education, and the incidence of cholera is notably higher (Zerbo et al.,
insurance, urban life has become increasingly attractive 2020). However, even developed countries are not immune
(Cao et al., 2009). This attractiveness is further reinforced to the increased risk of disease epidemics, as exemplified
by the misconception that urbanization equates to by the global COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020.
modernization, driving excessive urbanization and the Natural disasters also pose a substantial threat to urban
development of megacities. Modern cities are characterized residents, often resulting in a devastating loss of life. For
by high population density and heavy reliance on resource example, the magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Tangshan,
imports for their continued functioning. This dependency Hebei, China, on July 28, 1976, caused approximately
makes them increasingly vulnerable to both natural 240,000 deaths, while the magnitude 8.3 earthquake
and human-made disasters that disrupt resource supply in Xi’an, Shaanxi, China, on January 23, 1556, led to an
chains (Rebelo et al., 2011). Global warming has further unprecedented 830,000 deaths. Calculating the economic
exacerbated this issue, as rising sea levels pose an escalating return of urbanization using only simple market prices,
risk to people settled in low-lying coastal areas. without accounting for the impacts of environmental
degradation, natural disasters, and other hidden costs,
3. Risks created by excessive urbanization can dangerously overlook these additional hazards of

From a historical perspective, while excessive population urbanization.
concentration may yield short-term economic benefits, Historically, natural disasters have always posed
it often exacerbates long-term risks of natural disasters. existential threats to human societies. In China, for
Large cities are increasingly facing environmental hazards. example, the relatively advanced Liangzhu culture (3300
When the population size exceeds sustainable limits, cities – 2300 BCE) in present-day northern Zhejiang and the
may become vulnerable to collapse (Odum & Odum, Longshan culture (3000 – 1900 BCE) in northeastern China
2001; Seto et al., 2010). Rapidly expanding cities often both were abruptly extinguished due to seawater intrusion
extend urban areas into flood-prone zones in an attempt caused by a massive tsunami, which flooded extensive low-
to alleviate congestion, inadvertently increasing their lying areas. Archaeological evidence suggests a significant
exposure to natural disasters. Between 1985 and 2015, the regression of these cultures, even though some people
global area covered by cities expanded by an average of survived the disasters (Yu, 1997). Further archeological
85%, while the area of settlements located in regions facing findings indicate that rising sea levels inundated China’s
the highest flood risk increased by 122% (Rentschler et al., eastern coast during two distinct periods: 2 – 57 CE and
2023). At present, more than 100 million people around 465 – 527 CE. Evidence shows a near absence of human
the world live in coastal areas at serious risk of flooding, activity in areas below 4 m above sea level along the eastern
with elevations of < 1 m above sea level (Seto et al., 2010). coast during 1 – 600 CE (Yu, 1995).
Global trade has accelerated the pace of coastal As sea levels rise, coastal low-lying areas become
development, coinciding with global sea level rise (Pilkey increasingly vulnerable to tsunamis, particularly in
& Cooper, 2004). This combination makes coastal cities tectonically active regions, such as the Pacific “Ring of
increasingly vulnerable to tsunamis. In addition, global Fire.” Therefore, it is necessary to implement proactive
climate change has amplified the frequency and intensity measures to mitigate such risks before they escalate into
of hurricanes, even for inland cities not directly threatened disasters. For example, residents in flood-prone areas
by rising sea levels. For example, the tsunami that struck should be encouraged to relocate from low-lying, highly
Indonesia on December 26, 2004, resulted in at least developed areas to higher elevations. While this movement

Volume 7 Issue 2 (2025) 3 https://doi.org/10.36922/jcau.5320