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Khan, et al.

levels. Long-term fluctuations in annual rainfall and Finally, how do Pakistan’s forests contribute to GHG
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temperature, mainly driven by meteorological changes, reduction? This inquiry may reveal the factors that
may lead to floods and droughts. Climate change is influence the carbon-capturing and carbon-storing
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influenced by factors such as temperature, precipitation, potential of Pakistan’s forests, which could guide
humidity, carbon dioxide levels, air pollution, wind, and strategies to enhance the country’s climate change
atmospheric pressure. In hyper-arid and arid regions, mitigation. The objectives of this study are as follows:
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droughts are common during the winter monsoon (i) To analyze Pakistan’s FCBI, which assesses its
season (December – February) due to decreased forests’ carbon sequestration capacity and their role
seasonal rainfall and rising temperatures, which in carbon management.
increase evapotranspiration. Ahmed et al. found that (ii) To evaluate the success of forest preservation and
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Pakistan’s surface temperature rose by 0.1°C per decade management initiatives, such as afforestation and
from1960 to 2010, accompanied by highly variable protected areas, in enhancing carbon sequestration,
precipitation patterns. Since 1990, private ownership and aligning with the Sustainable Development
of forests has increased, while public woodlands have Goals.
decreased. China, Russia, Brazil, and Canada together (iii) To assess how agricultural income, annual
own 54% of the world’s forests, with the United deforestation rates, climate, population, and
States, Canada, and Russia collectively holding 46%. land use changes affect Pakistan’s forest carbon
Heat waves – defined as annual temperatures of 29°C sequestration capacity.
or higher – would affect approximately 5 times fewer This research employs a robust least squares
people if global warming were limited to 1.5°C instead (RLS) regression technique that accounts for model
of 2.7°C. By the end of the century, climate change could outliers, ensuring accurate parameter estimations. The
force 3 – 6 billion people – roughly one-third to one- methodology enhances statistical rigor by identifying
half of the global population, out of the habitable zone, the most significant influencing factors. The research
leading to extreme heat, food shortages, and increased framework is structured as follows: Section 2 provides
mortality. Pakistan’s land cover change maps show that the literature review; Section 3 outlines the theoretical
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most agricultural expansion is primarily occurring in development; Section 4 presents the data and methods;
rangeland and forest areas. Land use changes in Pakistan and Sections 5 and 6 present the findings and conclusions,
are driven by both economic growth and population respectively.
growth. Understanding the impact of urbanization
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and land use on regional and local climate, ecosystem 2. Literature review
services, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning is
essential. To balance climate change and food security, Environmental experts have studied the socioeconomic
effective carbon sequestration – particularly land-based and environmental factors influencing forest carbon
sequestration – is crucial. 33 sequestration for decades. 34-36 It has long been
The preceding discussion raises the following recognized that forests are important “carbon sinks” that
research questions: First, what is Pakistan’s forest store substantial amounts of carbon dioxide. 2,37 Forests
cover-based carbon sequestration capacity? To achieve absorb 30% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions,
better carbon stewardship and climate change mitigation helping to decrease climate change. Earlier studies have
for sustainable development in Pakistan, it is crucial emphasized the need to preserve and expand forests
to understand its carbon sequestration potential. This to mitigate climate change. 38,39 However, most of
knowledge will facilitate the development of policies these studies have focused on industrialized countries,
and programs aimed at addressing these challenges. then overlooking the unique dynamics of developing
Second, how effectively have afforestation initiatives nations, where deforestation, land-use changes, and
and protected area projects in Pakistan promoted long- socioeconomic pressures pose significant challenges
term forest management and carbon sequestration? to forest management. 40,41 This study uses Pakistan as
This question examines the effectiveness of forest a case example of a nation where carbon sequestration
management and conservation policies, particularly in capacity is substantially influenced by economic,
protected areas and reforestation initiatives, to better environmental, and climatic factors. The academic
understand their impact on carbon sequestration, literature also discusses how growing affluence and
sustainable practices, long-term environmental agricultural expansion contribute to deforestation and
resilience, and biodiversity conservation in Pakistan. carbon sequestration. 42,43 Saleem et al. demonstrated
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Volume 22 Issue 1 (2025) 54 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025050027