Page 67 - GHES-2-4

Global Health Economics and
Sustainability
Assessing Vietnam’s pandemic lockdown

Table 1. Differences between the directives No. 19/CT‑TTg, No. 15/CT‑TTg, and No. 16/CT‑TTg
19/CT‑TTg 15/CT‑TTg 16/CT‑TTg
Gathering (i) Stop all religious rites and activities with Stop all meetings and gatherings Everyone is required to stay at home, except
more than 20 participants in religious with more than 20 people in one for essential trips such as buying food and
establishments. room. medicine for emergency circumstances and
(ii) Stop all cultural, sports, and recreational going to work at factories and businesses that
activities in public places. are not closed or suspended for operation.
Do not form crowded groups of people Do not form groups of more than Do not form groups of more than two people
outside office buildings, schools, or hospitals. 10 people outside office buildings, outside office buildings, schools, or hospitals.
schools, or hospitals.
The minimum 1 m 2 m 2 m
distance in public
space
Business Non-essential service businesses (e.g., game Stop all businesses and services that Stop all businesses and services that are not
and entertainment centers, beauty salons, are not essential. essential.
karaoke rooms, massage establishments, bars,
nightclubs), and several other businesses will
remain closed.
Trading and service businesses such as
wholesalers, retailers, lottery businesses,
hotels, lodging establishments, restaurants,
and food stores will be allowed to reopen.
Transportation No restriction. Travel will be restricted from Public transportation services will be
pandemic-hit areas to other suspended, and travel from region to region
localities. will be minimized, except for essential goods
and services
Source: Authors’ consolidation of data from the Department of Health of Ho Chi Minh City, available at: https://medinet.gov.vn/
giam-doc-cac-benh-vien-can-biet/su-khac-biet-giua-chi-thi-15-chi-thi-16-va-chi-thi-19-cua-thu-tuong-chinh-phu-s-c1780-44712.aspx (Last accessed:
March 2, 2022)

impact of lockdown policies that were implemented in 49 found that enforcing social distancing policies can reduce
provinces and centrally run cities of Vietnam from April 27, COVID-19 incidence by 13%. Moreover, the authors
2021, to October 1, 2021. The appropriateness of ITS as a suggested that the rapid implementation of such policies
method of analysis is further discussed in the next section. can significantly lower the infection rate.
Based on the results of the analysis, this study evaluates the ITS is widely used to measure the effect of lockdown
effectiveness of lockdown interventions in controlling the policies in specific countries. For example, Thayer et al.
infection rate of COVID-19 during this period. (2021) employed the ITS design and found an average
Physical separation is considered the most practical 8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6 – 9%) reduction
strategy to combat the pandemic in the absence of vaccines in the daily infection rate after the implementation of
and pharmaceutical therapies. This strategy aims to reduce Lockdown 1.0 in India. A study by Silva et al. (2020)
person-to-person contact, thereby impeding the spread provided evidence of a reduction of 37.85% in São Luís
of the virus (Qualls, 2017). The primary purpose is to and 33.4% in Fortaleza in the average daily deaths when
buy time and flatten the curve, preventing the health-care lockdown policies were enforced. Siedner et al. (2020)
system from collapsing due to a lack of beds, health-care identified a 0.9% (95% CI: −1.4 – 0.4%) daily decline in
staff, and personal protective equipment, as witnessed in COVID-19 growth rates 4 days after implementing the first
Italy and Spain (Busch et al., 2020). This method has been statewide social distancing measures. In Europe, Tobías
used in previous pandemics, e.g., the influenza A pandemic (2020) showed that the incidence trend was considerably
(Jones & Adida, 2013; Monto, 2006). reduced in Italy and Spain after the first lockdown, though
Alfano & Ercolano (2020) demonstrated that social it continued to rise. After the second lockdown, which
distancing is an effective non-pharmaceutical intervention was with more restrictions, the trend’s slope changed and
to reduce the spread of infectious disease, using a cross- became negative.
country panel analysis. Similarly, Islam et al. (2020), Several Vietnamese studies have investigated the
applying the ITS method to data drawn from 149 countries, consequences of government policies during the COVID-19

Volume 2 Issue 4 (2024) 3 https://doi.org/10.36922/ghes.3423