Page 72 - GHES-2-4

Global Health Economics and
Sustainability
Assessing Vietnam’s pandemic lockdown

administration implemented Directive No.16/CT-TTg It is important to note that these local governments
in Buon Man Thuot City, which successfully reduced the implemented interventions relatively late. For example,
infection rate, resulting in a slope of −2.06 (p = 0.006). Binh Duong applied Directive No.16/CT-TTg when the
number of daily new cases had already reached 503, while
3.1.5. South-east in HCM City, Directive No.16/CT-TTg was applied on July
In the South-east region, this study categorized provinces 9, 2021, when there were already 1,729 new daily cases.
into two groups based on the severity of the pandemic. The 3.1.6. Mekong River Delta
first group included Ba Ria–Vung Tau, Tay Ninh, and Binh
Phuoc, while the second group comprised HCM City, Binh As a neighboring region to the Southeast, the epicenter
Duong, and Dong Nai. of the outbreak, the Mekong River Delta was massively
impacted when the pandemic escalated in the South-east.
In the first group, the situation remained under control To prevent the spread of the coronavirus, all provinces and
with the province-wide application of the strictest Directive cities in the Mekong River Delta implemented Directive
No.16/CT-TTg. During the study period, the number of No.16/CT-TTg in its strictest form on July 19, 2021 (The
new infections in these provinces did not exceed 500 cases/ Prime Minister, 2021).
day. The statistical values for trendline changes in the post-
intervention periods were all negative. For Ba Ria–Vung This intervention proved effective in Tra Vinh, Vinh
Tau, this value was −2.57 (p = 0.1), while in Tay Ninh and Long, Ben Tre, Dong Thap, and Hau Giang provinces.
Binh Phuoc, the values were −9.98 (p = 0.666) and −0.74 The ITS model results show a negative slope change in the
(p = 0.74), respectively. post-intervention period for these provinces, indicating a
decline in infection rates. 1
In contrast, the situation was quite severe in the second
A similar pattern was observed in Can Tho, Long
group. Unlike the localities investigated in the previous An, and Tien Giang, where the pandemic was gradually
sections, the province-wide application of Directive No.16/ controlled following the province-wide application of
CT-TTg did not significantly impact Binh Duong and Directive No.16/CT-TTg. However, the effectiveness of this
Dong Nai, as the slope changes for the post-intervention intervention was not as pronounced as in the previously
period continued to increase positively. In Binh Duong, mentioned provinces. By the end of the study period, the
the slope change value was 30.1 (p = 0.006), while in Dong number of daily new infection cases remained relatively
Nai, it was 9.73 (p = 0.0). high in Can Tho (30 cases), Long An (117 cases), and Tien
Particularly in HCM City, the infection rate rose Giang (71 cases).
dramatically despite the city-wide implementation of For the remaining provinces in the region, the
strict policies, such as Directives No.15/CT-TTg, No.10/ effectiveness of lockdown policies was limited. Despite the
CT-UBND, and No.16/CT-TTg, as shown in Figure 5. The implementation of Directive No.16/CT-TTg, the infection
pandemic was only brought under control after August rate continued to rise significantly. For example, in Kien
22, 2021, when the local administration issued the most Giang province, as illustrated in Figure 6, the number
restrictive directive (No.11/CT-UBND). The trendline
value following this intervention was significantly negative 1 The results are not reported here to conserve space but
at −59.14 (p = 0). available upon request.

Figure 5. Interrupted time series model result for Ho Chi Minh City

Volume 2 Issue 4 (2024) 8 https://doi.org/10.36922/ghes.3423