Page 105 - IJPS-10-4

International Journal of
Population Studies Climate change-induced human mobility

in changing environments caused by climate-induced change (IOM, 2022). The Intergovernmental Panel on
disasters such as floods, droughts, storms, and heat waves. Climate Change (IPCC) (2018) has highlighted that
As a result, human mobility has emerged as an adaptation migration is an important and potentially effective climate
strategy to climate change for both indigenous and local change adaptation strategy in Africa and is considered in
people in Zimbabwe (Maganga & Suso, 2022; Oakes et al., adaptation planning. Similarly, the recently launched AU
2020). This shift has prompted individuals to relocate to Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and
areas with more favorable economic and environmental Action Plan (2022 – 2032) acknowledges that movement or
conditions (Locke, 2009; Nyahunda et al., 2021), which migration is an adaptation strategy employed by hundreds
aligns with the notion that climate change impacts are of millions of people, both in response to negative stimuli
global, with sub-Saharan Africa being one of the most and as a means of seeking a better life, and that there may
severely affected regions (Serdeczny et al., 2017). The be a considerable role for governments in normalizing
negative effects of climate change have led to increased and facilitating the movement of people (United Nations
migration in Africa, driven by both gradual and sudden- Economic Commission for Africa, 2022).
onset events such as desertification, deforestation, rising Zimbabwe is used as a case study to explain climate-
sea levels, droughts, water scarcity, and floods. Over the induced migration in Southern Africa. The country
past few decades, these events have intensified in frequency has long been affected by climate change, with impacts
and severity. By 2050, climate change is projected to manifesting through droughts, erratic temperatures,
prompt 1.2 million people to move across national borders floods, cyclones, heat waves, wildfires, water source
within the African continent (Leal Filho et al., 2022; desiccation, and the spread of disease-causing pathogens
Simpson & Rosengaertner, 2023). This represents 10% of (Bhatasara, 2015; Muchena & Iglesias, 1995; Nyahunda
all cross-border migrations but is only a small fraction of & Tirivangasi, 2021a; Unganai, 1996). Meteorological
the expected climate migration in Africa (Amakrane et al., records show that Zimbabwe is already experiencing
2023). In the next 30 years, up to 5% of Africa’s population, climate variations (Dube & Phiri, 2013; Gwatida et al.,
potentially 113 million people could be displaced within 2023). For instance, an increase in average temperatures by
their home countries due to climate impacts (Amakrane 2℃ is projected to reduce Zimbabwe’s wetlands from 9%
et al., 2023; Simpson & Rosengaertner, 2023). Most to 2.5%, while a 4℃ rise would reduce the summer water
climate-related human mobility occurs within countries or surplus zones to <2% (Manyeruke et al., 2013). The climate
between neighboring countries rather than toward distant
high-income countries (International Organization for variation reports reveal that droughts occurred every
10 years during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. However, the
Migration, 2022). In 2021 alone, the Internal Displacement frequency of droughts and dry spells has increased to every
Monitoring Centre reported 2.6 million new internal 4 – 5 years, and by the late 1990s, they were occurring
displacements in sub-Saharan Africa due to disasters every 3 years. Since 2000, the situation has worsened, with
(International Organization for Migration [IOM], 2022). successive droughts impacting the country in 2002 – 2003,
The World Bank’s Groundswell Report II projects that, 2004 – 2005, and 2007 – 2008 (Manyeruke et al., 2013).
without significant climate and development interventions,
climate change could contribute to the migration of more A recent study by Afrobarometer notes that every six in
than 105 million people within their own countries in 10 Zimbabweans report experiencing worsening droughts,
Africa due to water stress, reduced crop productivity, and highlighting the urgent need for government action. In
rising sea levels (World Bank, 2021). response, the Zimbabwean government has declared a
national disaster due to the impact of these droughts on
This study uses two Afrocentric tenets – historicity and
culture – to trace how climate change and climate-related farming activities. With millions facing hunger, there
is an urgent call for over US$2 billion in aid to ensure
disasters have jeopardized the agro-lives of people in
Chimanimani, Zimbabwe, leading to internal and regional sufficient food supplies (Afrobarometer, 2024). The latest
migration. To understand the current patterns of African Afrobarometer survey in Zimbabwe, conducted in 2022,
migration, it is crucial to explore its historical context. indicates that the proportion of citizens experiencing
Human mobility in Africa has a long history and is a key more severe droughts has almost doubled since 2017.
driver for the resilience of communities (Nyahunda et al., While climate change is still an unknown concept to
2021). As part of the 2063 African Union (AU) Agenda and more than half of Zimbabweans, those who are aware of
the Global Compact for Migration objectives, there is now it overwhelmingly report that climate change is worsening
recognition that migration can become a development their lives (Afrobarometer, 2024).
enabler, a strategy to improve sustainable livelihoods and The country is projected to experience a progressive
a way to adapt to environmental pressures and climate reduction in precipitation, rising temperatures, more

Volume 10 Issue 4 (2024) 99 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.2983