Page 49 - IJPS-11-2

International Journal of

Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE
Geographic distribution of single motherhood in

Nigeria: 2003 – 2018

Oluwayemisi Oyeronke Alaba 1,2 , Faith E. Eshofonie , Oluwatoyin K. Bodunwa 3 ,
3
3
and Ezra Gayawan *
1 Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria
2 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Ajayi Crowther University, Oyo,
Oyo State, Nigeria
3 Department of Statistics, School of Physical Sciences, Federal University of Technology, Akure,
Ondo State, Nigeria

Abstract

The prevalence of single motherhood, associated with adverse maternal and child
health outcomes, is now increasing rapidly across Nigerian states. The distribution
of single mothers could vary widely across geographical settings in highly
heterogeneous Nigerian states with diverse sociocultural, religious, and ethnic beliefs,
which are some of the drivers of parenting styles. Using cross-sectional data from four
waves of the Nigeria Demographic Health Survey, we analyzed the spatiotemporal
patterns of single motherhood across Nigerian states. Within a Bayesian context, we
*Corresponding author: considered a binomial likelihood for the single motherhood variable and included
Ezra Gayawan
(egayawan@futa.edu.ng) the categorical variables as linear effects. The metrical covariate, the age of the
women, was modeled assuming a second-order random walk prior, while the state
Citation: Alaba, O.O.,
Eshofonie, F.E., Bodunwa, O.K., & random effect was modeled using a Gaussian intrinsic conditional autoregressive
Gayawan, E. (2025). Geographic prior. The findings indicate strong spatial clustering that shows a North-South divide
distribution of single motherhood in over time, with high chances of single motherhood recorded in most southern states.
Nigeria: 2003 – 2018. International
Journal of Population Studies, These spatial distributions persisted after accounting for the observed covariates,
11(2): 43-52. indicating that the clustering serves as a proxy for other indicators that exert an
https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.4313
unmatched influence on the prevalence of single motherhood across geographic
Received: July 24, 2024 settings. We found that Christian women are more prone to single motherhood
1st revised: July 31, 2024 compared with Muslim women. Similarly, educational attainment, household wealth
index, urban residency, and ethnicity are predictors of single motherhood in Nigeria.
2nd revised: September 6, 2024
Interventions to ease the burden of single motherhood in Nigeria could be more
Accepted: October 15, 2024 impactful if states in the southern fringe are given priority.
Published online: November 18,
2024
Keywords: Nigeria; Single motherhood; Spatial analysis; Bayesian inference
Copyright: © 2024 Author(s).
This is an Open-Access article
distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution
License, permitting distribution, 1. Introduction
and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is The family is the foundation on which every society is built, and the way it is structured
properly cited. has a significant impact on the behavior of people at the individual and communal
Publisher’s Note: AccScience levels. The growth and well-being of family members can be greatly impacted by family
Publishing remains neutral with dynamics. Numerous sources bolster the argument that the effects of industrialization,
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional urbanization, and modernization have transformed the family unit (Alaba et al., 2015).
affiliations. Alternative family structures, including single-parent households, cohabitation, and

Volume 11 Issue 2 (2025) 43 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.4313