Page 28 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Nuptiality patterns among Ethiopian women

women are most likely to be married (Central Statistical marriage before age 18 but has not yet fully achieved this
Agency (CSA) [Ethiopia] & ICF, 2016). goal. This study revealed that the cumulative incidence of
The incidence of first marriage before age 15 decreased first marriage was reduced by 10% at age 20, meaning that
by about 17%, and the reduction in first marriage before among 10 women, one delayed her marriage to a later age.
age 20 amounted to 10%. These shifts across different Policies and programs have been ineffective in delaying the
decomposition sections were the results of several incidence of first marriage beyond the age of 20.
socioeconomic factors, including the rise in women’s The experience of women entering into first marriages
education level and changes in occupations across the before and after these policy interventions has shifted due
birth cohorts. The distribution of occupations, directly to changes in socioeconomic factors. According to LCT,
linked to higher education levels, significantly contributed changes in demographic events are shaped by individuals’
to lowering the risk of early marriage (Amoo, 2017). In socioeconomic status and other contextual factors. The
agreement with our findings, studies have shown that timing and occurrence of important life events are greatly
modernization, characterized by mass education and shifts influenced by socioeconomic background. Therefore,
in means of livelihood, has contributed to the reduction in the socioeconomic differences between the birth cohorts
early marriage (Paul, 2019). Education empowers girls to before and after the policy intervention can be understood
make informed decisions about their lives, including when within the framework of LCT.
and whom to marry. It also equips them with the skills
necessary to participate in economic activities and become 4.2. Spatial drivers
financially independent, which further reduces their The largest proportion of marriage prevalence was
reliance on early marriage as a means of economic security. contributed by Oromia, Amhara, and SNNPR in both
Moreover, studies have indicated that modernization cohorts. The regional administrations have significantly
causes a shift in values and marriage expectations among influenced the reduction or shift in characteristics of
younger individuals, leading to the postponement of cumulative marriage incidence across all decomposition
marriage or the decision to remain unmarried (Himawan points. According to Islam et al. (2016), significant
et al., 2019). Conversely, our findings show that girls who geographical differences in child marriage were found
do not attend school or fail to complete primary education in Bangladesh. Another study revealed that regional
are more likely to marry young (Paul, 2019). In the earlier differences were a community-level factor associated with
cohort, communities characterized by higher levels of child marriage (Zegeye et al., 2021). By ages 15, 20, and 25,
wealth and social status experienced a notable decline in the the differences in characteristics were primarily attributed
incidence of marriages. This trend continued in more recent to urban areas (Harari, Addis Ababa, and Dire Dawa),
cohorts, where communities with medium levels of affluence which contributed to the reduction in cumulative incidence
similarly experienced a decrease in the number of marriages. between the two cohorts. In addition, urban areas showed
discriminatory effects, leading to marriages at age 25. The
Approximately 55% of the earlier cohort’s married structural effects of place of residence and regional variation
women, or 17.4% of the total, postponed their first contributed minimally to the reduction in marriage
marriage to a later age in the recent cohort. In addition, occurrences at all levels of decomposition, except at age
for every five women, one delayed her first marriage from 25. After controlling for other factors, each regional state
the earliest possible age to a slightly later age. The 1991 responded separately to the encouragement of marriage
National Population Policy and the 2000 Revised Family between the two cohorts. The coefficient effects observed
Code of Ethiopia established the minimum age of marriage at age 25 were a response from women residing in rural
as 18 years (TGE, 1993; The Revised Family Code of FDRE, areas within the recent cohort, with no coefficient effects
2000). By age 15, a significant number of women were noted in the earlier cohorts. According to Erulkar (2022),
influenced by these policies and chose to delay their first Addis Ababa, Amhara, and Tigray experienced the most
marriage from a very young age. The occurrence of the significant declines in child marriage, whereas estimates for
earliest marriages was significantly delayed due to these Somali and Oromia during the same period indicate a rise in
policies and programs. child marriage. In Afar, Beneshangul-Gumuz, Somalia, and
The shift can be attributed to improvements in girl’s Oromia, the majority of girls get married before turning 18.
education at all levels. In primary school, the percentage
of girls enrolled rose from 20% in 1993 to 90.5% in 4.3. Coefficient effects
2007/2008; in secondary school, the percentage rose from The results confirm the hypothesis that the cumulative
7.1% in 1993 to 22% in 2007/2008 (TGE, 1993). However, incidence of entry into marriage is influenced by the
the policy primarily aimed to reduce the incidence of discriminatory effects of socioeconomic determinants in

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 22 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.3531