Page 59 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of

Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE
Age patterns of fertility and the fertility transition

in Ethiopia and its regions: An attempt using
regression models to predict age-specific fertility

rates

1
2
Mezgebo Gebregeorgis *, Kinfe Abraha , Mache Tsadik , and
1
Krishna Murthy Ponnapalli 1
1 Center for Population and Development, Institute of Population Studies, Mekelle University, Mekelle,
Tigray, Ethiopia
2 Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Tigray,
Ethiopia

Abstract

Ethiopia has experienced a considerable decline in fertility rates in urban and rural areas
across various regions over the past few decades, largely due to government initiatives.
Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) from 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016
*Corresponding author: provide substantial evidence of this trend in terms of total fertility rates (TFRs). Due to
Mezgebo Gebregeorgis the lack of reliable vital registration systems and recent census data, research heavily
(mezgebug@gmail.com)
relies on these EDHS surveys. A review of the literature reveals a gap in understanding
Citation: Gebregeorgis, M., the age patterns of fertility and the fertility transition in Ethiopia and its regions. To
Abraha, K., Tsadik, M., &
Ponnapalli, K.M. (2025). Age address this, this study proposes a “model fertility table” for Ethiopia, providing reliable
patterns of fertility and the fertility estimates of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) based on TFR data. Using TFRs from
transition in Ethiopia and its regions: multiple EDHS surveys, ASFRs are derived for the years 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016
An attempt using regression models
to predict age-specific fertility rates. to study regional fertility transition in Ethiopia. The results show a typical uni-modal
International Journal of Population distribution of ASFRs, with a broad peak in fertility rates among women aged 20 – 24, 25
Studies, 11(3): 53-67. – 29, and 30 – 34 during the early stages of the transition. As TFRs decline, the peak shifts
https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.4086 toward older age groups. In addition, the fertility pattern becomes more concentrated
Received: June 29, 2024 in older age groups. Significant fertility differences were observed between regional
1st revised: December 27, 2024 and rural-urban areas. This study has both theoretical and practical implications. It
introduces a new methodology for population studies and offers detailed ASFR data,
2nd revised: January 10, 2025 aiding policymakers in designing targeted fertility and health policies and addressing
Accepted: February 26, 2025 regional fertility differences for more effective interventions.
Published online: March 26, 2025
Copyright: © 2025 Author(s). Keywords: Ethiopia fertility transition; Model fertility table; Ethiopian demographic and
This is an Open-Access article health surveys; Age-specific fertility rate; Total fertility rate
distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution
License, permitting distribution,
and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is 1. Introduction
properly cited.
1.1. Background
Publisher’s Note: AccScience
Publishing remains neutral with Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, like any other country in Africa,
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional has undergone a fertility transition over the past few decades. This is evidenced by national
affiliations. and regional total fertility rate (TFR) data from various censuses and the Ethiopian

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 53 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.4086