Page 63 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Age patterns of fertility in Ethiopia

program managers with up-to-date information to estimates and projected ASFRs for Ethiopia for every
guide the planning, implementation, monitoring, and single year starting from 1950 to 2100. In this study, the
evaluation of population and health programs in the data from the WPP 2022 was used to develop the MFT
country (Central Statistical Agency [Ethiopia] & ICF for Ethiopia, adopting Mitra’s 1965 methodology (Mitra,
International, 2012). During the EDHS 2016, it stated 1965). Unlike Mitra’s use of the GFR as the basic input
that detailed information was collected on “background indicator, this study employed TFR as the basic input.
characteristics of the respondents, fertility, marriage, Additionally, instead of simple linear regression, this
fertility preferences, awareness and the use of family present study included estimated and projected ASFRs and
planning methods, child feeding practices, nutritional TFRs as basic inputs in developing various age-specific
status of women and children, adult and childhood fertility models using cubic regression techniques. The
mortality, awareness and attitudes regarding HIV/ inclusion of projected estimates allowed the researchers to
AIDS, female genital mutilation, domestic violence, and cover the entire fertility transition period of Ethiopia and
height and weight of women” (Central Statistical Agency derive plausible estimates for regions like Addis Ababa,
[Ethiopia] & ICF, 2016, pxix). Further details on fertility which has already reached below-replacement fertility
information from the EDHS reports can be obtained from level of TFR of 2.1 per woman.
the EDHS reports of Ethiopia (Central Statistical Agency Despite its uses, the fertility data from the WPP have
[Ethiopia] & ICF. 2012, 2016; Central Statistical Authority several limitations. Inconsistencies in data quality may
[Ethiopia] & ORC Macro. 2001, 2006; Ethiopian Public arise due to differences in data collection methods across
Health Institute [Ethiopia] & ICF 2021). countries and underreporting in regions with poor
The EDHS includes a series of questions designed to statistical infrastructures. The WPP uses models to estimate
calculate fertility rates. These questions typically inquire fertility when data are unavailable or unreliable, which leads
about the number of children a woman has ever had, the to uncertainty. Future fertility projections are made based
dates of their births, the survival status of each child, and on assumptions of future trends in fertility, which may not
the age at which a woman gave birth to each child. While capture the socio-economic changes that could occur in the
these questions provide valuable data on fertility rates, future. Therefore, it is important to consider these factors
there are limitations regarding the quality of information. when using WPP data for research or policy formulation.
As indicated in the introduction, there are issues related In the present paper, we compared the WPP ASFRs with
to birth history data, like recall bias, where respondents regression model-based ASFRs to assess the suitability of
may inaccurately remember birth dates or underreport WPP fertility data for constructing an MFT.
sensitive topics like child mortality or fertility intentions.
In addition, age preferences when reporting the mother’s 2.2. Methods
age pose another challenge. Moreover, the DHS data 2.2.1. Cubic polynomials to construct the MFT for
include potential sampling errors. Ethiopia
2.1.2. TFRs and ASFRs from the United Nation’s World In brief, the MFT for Ethiopia provided here consists of
Population Prospects (WPP) 2022 a set of nine regression models, each corresponding to
consecutive age groups: 10 – 14, 15 – 19, 20 – 24, 25 – 29,
The ASFRs and relevant TFRs for Ethiopia from 1950 to 30 – 34, 35 – 39, 40 – 44, 45 – 49, and 50 – 54. These models
2100 were obtained from the WPP 2022 (United Nations, are collectively referred to as the “MFT for Ethiopia.”
2022a). In the WPP 2022: summary of Results, it is stated
that “WPP 2022 is the twenty-seventh edition of the official The regression model used is expressed as:
estimates and projections of the global population that ASFR = a + b × TFR + c × TFR + d × TFR 3 (I)
2
have been published by the United Nations since 1951. which provides estimated values of ASFRs for Ethiopia
They form a comprehensive set of demographic data that are very close to the observed values of ASFRs reported
to assess population trends at the global, regional, and by the United Nations WPP 2022 report. Initially, ASFRs
national levels.” (United Nations, 2022b, p.1). Furthermore, and TFRs of all available single years from 1950 to 2100,
it states that “For the first time, the 2022 revision presents which amounted to about 151 individual observations,
all demographic indicators and population estimates from were considered in the above models to develop the MFT.
1950 and projections to 2100 by single age and sex for one- However, the developed fertility model failed to provide
year intervals.” (United Nations, 2022b, p.1).
acceptable estimates for 1950 to 1983. Moreover, no
The WPP 2022 is widely used by demographers and reliable survey or census existed from 1950 to 1983 that
researchers worldwide. It provides the required plausible provided reliable fertility estimates. Therefore, the model

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 57 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.4086