Page 75 - IJPS-11-4

International Journal of
Population Studies Droughts and intimate partner violence

to increased IPV, where the strain and pressure of tough monsoon (southwestern monsoon [SWM]), which occurs
times can escalate household conflicts. from July to September, and the Indian winter monsoon
Declining agricultural output due to drought may (northeastern monsoon [NEM]), which spans from
lead to economic distress and food insecurity, which October to December (Mishra et al., 2021). Although India
can intensify IPV toward women. One channel for this receives the majority of its annual rainfall from the SWM,
increased violence is reduced family income from crop the NEM, which is crucial for the southern peninsular
failure. Although research on the association between states, contributes to 11% of India’s annual rainfall, with
several districts in the southern peninsula receiving
drought and IPV is scarce globally and specifically within about 30 – 60% of their yearly rainfall during this period
India, studies like those by Cools et al. (2020), Epstein (Rajeevan et al., 2012). On average, the NEM accounts for
et al. (2020), and Cooper et al. (2021) have explored more than 40% of the region’s total annual rainfall (Mishra
the relation in various African countries. However, the et al., 2021).
evidence remains mixed. To the best of our knowledge,
only Rai et al. (2021) have examined the effects of drought 1.1.1. Monsoon and the Indian economy
on IPV among Indian women. However, they acknowledge
limitations in their data collection, as it coincided with the Gadgil and Gadgil (2006) examined the impact of
drought, potentially biasing their results. Our study seeks monsoon variability on India’s gross domestic product
to address this gap using a dataset free from such timing (GDP) and agriculture, finding that a deficit in rainfall
issues. affects GDP more significantly than surplus rainfall.
The NEM shows higher variability than the SWM, and
Drought may affect IPV differently across population a substantial decrease in agricultural output is observed
groups. Rural households, which rely heavily on in the southern peninsula during the NEM-deficit year
agriculture than urban households, are likely to experience (Rajeevan et al., 2012). For instance, data from the
income reductions both directly, due to crop failure, and Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the Government
indirectly, from fewer farm-employment opportunities. of India (GOI, 2020) reveal that rabi food grains yield in
This economic stress, a known contributor to IPV, can Andhra Pradesh dropped to 2623 kg/ha in 2018 – 2019,
disproportionally affect rural households. However, no compared to 3086 kg/ha in 2017 – 2018 and 3284 kg/ha
research to date has investigated the heterogeneous effect in 2019 – 2020. Similarly, in Karnataka, the yield dropped
of drought on IPV in rural and urban populations. Our to 931 kg/ha in 2018 – 2019, down from 1114 kg/ha in
study aims to fill this gap. 2017 – 2018 and 1344 kg/ha in 2019 – 2020. However, the
Although IPV is a global issue, affecting approximately all-India average food grain production for rabi increased
30% of women worldwide, the IPV rate in Southeast Asia in 2018 – 2019, indicating that states affected by an NEM
prevails at 37.7% (WHO, 2013). In India, the National precipitation deficit experienced a decline in rabi food
Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) shows that around 32% grain production.
of women aged 18 – 49 have experienced either physical 1.1.2. Natural disasters and women
violence (PV) or sexual violence (SV) by their intimate
partner (International Institute for Population Sciences O’Keefe et al. (1976) argue that “disaster occurs at the interface
& ICF, 2021). Several Indian states experienced severe between extreme physical phenomena and vulnerable
drought between 2016 and 2018. The data collection human populations,” emphasizing the importance of
period for the NFHS-5 aligns with the recall period for recognizing both elements. Disaster vulnerability theory
IPV questions in the Demographic and Health Survey explains why certain individuals, groups, or communities
(DHS) questionnaire, providing a unique opportunity to experience greater losses during disasters (Zakour &
study the effects of drought on IPV in a natural experiment Gillespie, 2012). Both physical and social factors contribute
setting. Using difference-in-difference (DID) estimates, we to disaster vulnerability. It is crucial to understand how
analyze the impact of drought on IPV in Indian women. natural events (physical factors) and economic, political,
Our study adds to the literature on IPV with robust results and cultural factors (social factors) influence vulnerability
and indicates a causal relation between drought and IPV. to disasters (Zakour & Gillespie, 2012).
Women often experienced increased vulnerability
1.1. Literature review
during disasters. Thurston et al. (2021) discussed the
Human history has been interspersed with natural increased risk that women and girls face amidst natural
disasters. One such disaster is drought, which is caused hazards and disasters. For example, Weitzman and
by rainfall shortages. India receives its annual rainfall Behrman (2016) analyzed IPV before and after the 2010
during two primary monsoon seasons: the Indian summer Haiti earthquake using data from the DHS and found that

Volume 11 Issue 4 (2025) 69 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.3065