Page 29 - IJPS-2-2

Danan Gu, Runlong Huang, Kirill Andreev, et al.

Appendix B

Table B1. Average five-year age-specific rate (%) of underestimation in the probability of dying at ages 70-95 under the assumption that there was a
15% underestimation in death rates at ages 60-70
2000 census 2010 census
Regions Provinces Males Females Males Females
A B A B A B A B
China 0.4 15.1 9.2 25.7 5.9 20.4 12.2 28.4
North Beijing 0.0 11.5 0.0 19.1 0.0 13.1 0.0 18.5
North Tianjin 0.0 13.4 6.8 22.9 6.7 25.0 7.7 28.3
North Hebei 0.0 1.0 4.7 18.7 0.0 7.8 5.5 18.8
North Shanxi 0.0 2.3 0.0 13.7 1.5 15.2 12.8 24.8
North Neimeng 0.0 6.3 0.0 12.3 14.9 28.1 17.7 32.0
Northeast Liaoning 0.0 10.4 1.2 18.7 2.3 17.8 5.4 22.8
Northeast Jilin 17.3 28.3 24.7 34.2 25.9 37.4 32.2 42.6
Northeast Heilongjiang 18.6 29.6 25.2 36.2 28.1 38.6 37.8 46.8
East Shanghai 0.0 5.4 0.0 12.1 0.0 6.8 0.0 7.5
East Jiangsu 0.0 11.5 0.0 19.6 0.0 9.6 0.0 16.6
East Zhejiang 0.0 1.8 0.0 10.5 0.0 6.3 0.0 6.3
East Anhui 9.0 23.0 9.9 28.1 4.0 19.7 7.8 27.3
East Fujian 0.7 16.2 4.4 25.8 1.0 16.7 0.0 18.7
East Jiangxi 2.1 15.5 10.1 25.4 2.8 16.5 12.7 27.6
East Shandong 0.0 5.0 0.0 19.6 0.0 12.8 4.7 22.9
South Central Henan 2.7 16.4 15.6 30.1 10.2 23.0 26.8 38.6
South Central Hubei 0.0 13.2 12.4 26.6 9.5 23.9 11.4 28.5
South Central Hunan 5.1 19.4 13.6 28.9 7.7 22.9 17.9 33.1
South Central Guangdong 0.0 14.8 2.4 25.6 7.6 22.3 7.4 27.0
South Central Guangxi 9.6 24.5 16.3 35.8 18.8 30.4 24.8 40.7
South Central Hainan 14.0 29.0 17.1 38.1 25.0 38.1 26.6 44.7
South Central Chongqing 6.7 20.2 13.0 26.7 12.3 27.1 11.9 29.8
Southwest Sichuan 9.8 22.5 18.7 31.8 11.6 25.5 17.4 31.9
Southwest Guizhou 1.1 15.1 9.6 24.1 9.5 22.7 15.0 28.8
Southwest Yunnan 0.0 9.3 4.7 17.5 5.6 17.2 15.8 25.7
Southwest Tibet 36.5 42.1 47.6 49.7 35.2 40.3 52.4 52.8
Northwest Shaanxi 0.0 12.4 8.0 21.1 8.5 22.0 19.9 31.1
Northwest Gansu 9.5 21.0 7.1 17.7 12.2 23.9 21.5 31.0
Northwest Ningxia 28.3 36.8 29.9 37.1 23.2 32.1 29.0 36.6
Northwest Qinghai 0.0 14.0 6.5 21.7 0.0 8.4 2.4 14.6
Northwest Xinjiang 32.7 43.6 45.5 52.4 36.2 45.0 48.2 54.3
Note: (1). A: The average five-year age-specific rate of underestimation was calculated as (100*(1− q / ˆ q ), where q represents the observed average probability of
n x
x
n
n
x
ˆ
q
dying over the five-year age group in the entire age group [x, x+n) (i.e., 25 q =1- 1/5 (1− 25 70 ) ) and q represents the corresponding average probability of dying
n x
70
ˆ
derived from the fitted estimates of the lower boundary of the confidence ellipse in Appendix C. (2). B: q was estimated from linear regression models between
n x
logit-transformed probabilities of dying at ages 70-95 and at ages 60-70. The R was 0.86 for males and 0.88 for females (see Appendix C). (3) These average rates of
2
underestimation for five-year age group were mildly lower than those for singe years of age.
International Journal of Population Studies | 2016, Volume 2, Issue 2 23