Page 30 - IJPS-2-2

Assessments of mortality at oldest-old ages by province in China's 2000 and 2010 censuses

Table B2. Average five-year age-specific rate (%) of underestimation of probability of dying at ages 80-95 under the assumption that there was a 15%
underestimation in death rates at ages 70-80
2000 census 2010 census
Regions Provinces Males Females Males Females
A B A B A B A B
China 5.8 12.6 11.6 18.6 10.4 17.6 18.0 23.1
North Beijing 0.3 9.8 5.5 14.6 0.6 10.7 8.4 17.4
North Tianjin 3.7 11.5 9.1 16.4 16.9 25.2 20.5 26.4
North Hebei 0.0 1.0 7.4 13.2 3.8 8.5 14.6 17.0
North Shanxi 0.0 3.9 3.1 8.4 8.9 14.5 16.5 19.9
North Neimeng 0.7 5.9 3.5 8.1 18.2 24.8 23.2 27.4
Northeast Liaoning 0.0 6.8 4.3 11.9 5.9 13.9 13.3 18.0
Northeast Jilin 19.1 25.3 21.1 27.2 27.9 34.2 33.1 37.3
Northeast Heilongjiang 19.7 26.1 22.7 29.1 30.6 36.3 37.8 41.8
East Shanghai 0.0 3.5 0.0 7.8 0.0 7.3 0.0 10.2
East Jiangsu 0.0 8.7 1.3 12.0 0.0 6.8 4.9 12.3
East Zhejiang 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 2.7 0.0 4.3
East Anhui 13.3 20.4 13.6 21.7 12.0 18.6 18.9 24.5
East Fujian 2.8 11.0 7.0 17.1 5.6 13.4 7.3 14.4
East Jiangxi 8.0 14.1 12.5 19.6 10.1 15.6 19.3 23.9
East Shandong 0.0 3.7 4.1 12.8 3.9 10.8 14.2 19.5
South Central Henan 9.4 15.1 18.3 24.8 16.2 21.7 30.8 34.5
South Central Hubei 6.3 12.1 14.7 20.9 16.6 23.0 19.6 24.6
South Central Hunan 10.7 17.4 13.2 21.2 12.4 19.9 22.6 27.4
South Central Guangdong 3.1 11.2 7.7 17.9 13.0 19.8 16.3 22.2
South Central Guangxi 11.6 20.1 19.7 29.2 18.3 25.4 29.4 35.1
South Central Hainan 17.3 25.5 21.9 32.0 24.7 32.4 29.8 37.7
South Central Chongqing 9.8 16.8 11.7 19.1 15.5 23.3 18.1 23.7
Southwest Sichuan 11.7 18.9 17.8 24.5 14.5 21.4 20.9 25.6
Southwest Guizhou 6.3 12.8 10.8 17.2 13.0 19.2 19.2 23.2
Southwest Yunnan 1.9 7.6 4.8 10.6 8.6 13.9 15.7 18.9
Southwest Tibet 37.7 41.7 38.2 42.7 32.5 36.6 46.0 47.6
Northwest Shaanxi 8.5 13.8 12.3 17.0 13.8 20.1 22.0 25.4
Northwest Gansu 19.1 23.1 9.4 13.3 16.6 22.1 22.8 25.7
Northwest Ningxia 32.7 37.1 29.0 33.0 22.6 28.1 28.5 31.0
Northwest Qinghai 8.0 14.5 16.1 20.6 3.3 8.8 9.2 11.2
Northwest Xinjiang 35.7 41.9 43.1 48.1 30.5 37.4 43.6 47.5
Note: (1). A: The average five-year age-specific rate of underestimation was calculated as (100*(1− q / ˆ q ), where q represents the observed average probability
n
x
x
n
n x
ˆ
q
of dying over the five-year age group in the entire age group [x, x+n) (i.e., 15 q =1- 1/3 (1− 15 80 ) ) and q represents the corresponding average probability of dying
n x
80
ˆ
derived from the fitted estimates of the lower boundary of the confidence ellipse in Appendix C. (2). B: q was estimated from linear regression models between
n x
logit-transformed probabilities of dying at ages 80-95 and at ages 70-80. The R was 0.87 for males and 0.93 for females (see Appendix C). (3) The average underesti-
2
mation rates for five-year of age were mildly lower than those for single years of age.
24 International Journal of Population Studies | 2016, Volume 2, Issue 2