Page 46 - IJPS-7-1

Breakpoint model application to Turkish population growth

Appendix

Table A. Estimation of breakpoint model for population growth in Türkiye, 1965 – 2021.
Variable Coefficient Std. error t‑Statistic Prob.
1965 – 1977-----13 observations
C −0.1613 0.8459 −0.1906 0.8500
Total fertility rate 0.1055 0.0611 1.7278 0.0934
Net migration rate −0.2531 0.0855 −2.9589 0.0057
Life expectancy at birth 0.0028 0.0105 0.2701 0.7888
1978 – 1985-----8 observations
C 0.7075 1.7560 0.4029 0.6896
Total fertility rate 0.1900 0.1011 1.8804 0.0689
Net migration rate 0.1591 0.0456 3.4881 0.0014
Life expectancy at birth −0.0100 0.0224 −0.4478 0.6572
1986 – 1996-----11 observations
C −0.0583 1.1753 −0.0496 0.9607
Total fertility rate 0.2457 0.0829 2.9600 0.0057
Net migration rate 0.3998 0.3153 1.2675 0.2138
Life expectancy at birth 1.9905 0.0126 −0.0016 0.9987
1997 – 2004----8 observations
C 6.5200 2.0890 3.1213 0.0037
Total FERTILITY RATE −0.6504 0.4931 −1.3184 0.1964
Net migration rate −0.3558 0.5625 −1.6325 0.5314
Life expectancy at birth −0.0649 0.0172 −3.7687 0.0006
2005 – 2012-----8 observations
C −3.7028 1.7593 −2.1048 0.0430
Total fertility rate 1.2436 0.2983 4.1692 0.0002
Net migration rate 0.1025 0.0052 19.812 0.0000
Life expectancy at birth 0.0156 0.0155 1.0016 0.3238
2013 – 2021-----9 observations
C −3.2591 2.0276 −1.6073 0.1175
Total fertility rate −0.6640 0.6568 −1.0110 0.3194
Net migration rate 0.1588 0.0089 17.875 0.0000
Life expectancy at birth 0.0587 0.0122 4.8285 0.0000
R-squared 0.9979
Adjusted R-squared 0.9964
S.E. of regression 0.0152
Sum squared resid. 0.0077
Log likelihood 173.19
F-statistic 669.52
Prob (F-statistic) 0.0000
Mean dependent var 0.5729
S.D. dependent var 0.2529
Akaike info criterion −5.2348
Schwarz criterion −4.3747
Hannah-Quinn crit. −4.9005
Durbin-Watson stat 2.7321
***Dependent variable: Log (population growth). Method: Least squares with breaks. **Break type: Bai-Perron tests of L + 1 versus L sequentially determined breaks.
Breaks: 1978, 1986, 1997, 2005, and 2013. *Selection: Trimming 0.15, Max breaks 5, Sig. level 0.05. White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors and covariances.
Source: Author’s calculations

40 International Journal of Population Studies | 2021, Volume 7, Issue 1