Page 65 - IJPS-8-2

International Journal of
Population Studies Projecting sex ratio at birth in Pakistan

Figure 5. SRB estimates in Balochistan, 1980 – 2020
Note: Red line and shaded areas are the medians and 95% credible intervals of the province-specific SRB, respectively. The green horizontal line is the SRB
baseline for the whole of Pakistan at 1.056 (Chao et al., 2019a). The SRB observations (dots) from the same source are connected with line segments of the
same color. Shaded areas around the observation series represent the sampling errors in the series (quantified by twice the sampling standard errors). Blue
vertical lines denote the start and end years of the sex ratio transition.

Table 3. Missing female births model results in Balochistan

Values are in thousands Time period
1980 – 1990 1991 – 2000 2001 – 2010 2011 – 2020 1980 – 2020
Estimated female births 124.2 124.2 153.2 174.9 143.6
[122.3; 125.8] [123.3; 125.5] [151.5; 155.1] [173.1; 176.2] [142.9; 144.4]
Expected female births 127.8 131.7 159.2 176.4 148.3
[126.3; 129.6] [130.5; 132.7] [157.4; 160.9] [175.2; 178.2] [147.6; 149.0]
AMFB 3.7 7.6 6.0 1.8 4.7
[0.7; 7.4] [5.0; 9.4] [2.3; 9.4] [0.1; 5.1] [3.4; 6.1]
CMFB 40.2 76.1 60.1 18.2 194.6
[7.4; 81.2] [50.0; 93.9] [23.5; 94.1] [0.5; 51.0] [140.0; 248.9]
Note: All values are in thousands. Numbers in front of the brackets are the posterior medians, and those inside brackets are the 95% credible intervals.
The estimated female births, expected female births, and AMFBs are averaged over each period. The CMFBs are the cumulative values over each period.
AMFB: Annual number of missing female births. CMFB: Cumulative number of missing female births.

period, the lower bound of the 95% credible intervals of of the AMFB, the CMFB between 1980 and 2020 is estimated
SRB exceeded the national baseline. at 194.6 [140.0; 248.9] in Balochistan province. Our results are
consistent with previous results (Qayyum & Rehan, 2017) of
3.3. Missing female births before 2020 in Balochistan sex-selective abortion in Balochistan. Although the data of that
Table 3 lists the missing female births in Balochistan over study were collected only from the rural areas (and hence may
different time periods. From the estimated and expected female not be provincially representative), Balochistan had the highest
births, we demonstrate the baseline magnitude of female births rate of sex-selective abortion during the 2011 – 2014 period.
in Balochistan. The estimated average AMFB over the four
decades from 1980 to 2020 is 4.7 [3.4; 6.1] thousand. On a 3.4. Scenario-based missing female births
decade-by-decade basis, the average AMFB increased from simulation after 2020
3.7 [0.7; 7.4] in 1980 – 1990 to 7.6 [5.0; 9.4] in 1991 – 2000, Although we identify Balochistan as the only province
then gradually declined from 2000, reaching 1.8 [0.1; 5.1] in with past/ongoing SRB inflation, we do not rule out the
the 2011 – 2020 period. Consequently, as the cumulative result possibility that the imbalanced SRB will emerge in other

Volume 8 Issue 2 (2022) 59 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i2.332