Page 67 - IJPS-8-2

International Journal of
Population Studies Projecting sex ratio at birth in Pakistan

the number of missing female births. When the simulated advancement. Pakistan fares poorly on gender equality,
SRB becomes imbalanced during the projection period, ranking 135 of 191 countries on the Gender Inequality
the three stages of the sex ratio transition (increase, Index (United Nations Development Programme, 2022).
stagnation, and return to normal) are visible in the resulting The deep-rooted social and cultural norms and practices
AMFBs. However, the AMFB is influenced not only by the continue to be the underlying cause of gender inequalities.
SRB imbalance process but also by the levels and trends Furthermore, inflated SRB influences the demand of a
in the total number of births over time. Accounting for larger number of children, currently manifesting as higher
both the SRB inflation and the total number of births, we fertility in Pakistan for the sake of more sons. The fertility
project the maximum AMFB for different combinations of stagnation in Pakistan since the onset of the 21 century is
st
start-year scenarios and the year in the projection period. evident primarily attributed to the higher ideal family size
In Islamabad (ICT), the maximum AMFB is projected with at least two sons (Wazir, 2018). The imbalanced SRB
to occur in 2050 when the SRB imbalance process starts leads to prolonged consequences in both demographic and
in 2035, with the AMFB at 1.7 thousand. In Khyber social aspects. Imbalanced SRB is one of the main factors
Pakhtunkhwa, the maximum AMFB is projected at 29.2
thousand in 2049 when the SRB inflation starts in 2034. that lead to the phenomenon of “missing women” first
The largest AMFB in Punjab is projected to occur in 2033 endeavored by Amartya Sen, referring to the females that
when the SRB inflation stats in 2021 and its projected should have survived or been born in the absence of sex
value is 76.2 thousand. In Sindh, when the SRB imbalance discrimination and excess mortality among females (Sen,
process starts in 2022, the maximum AMFB across all 1990). A large number of “missing women” results in a
marriage squeeze, increased levels of antisocial behavior
scenarios is projected to occur in 2035 at 37.8 thousand.
and violence, and may eventually have a long-term impact
4. Discussion on stability and social development.

Policy planners can prepare guidelines for preventing prenatal Despite the strong son preference persists in Pakistan,
sex discrimination using scenario-based projections of the one study implied that son preference has not resulted
number of missing female births in the provinces without in nationwide sex-selective abortions but occurred in
ongoing SRB inflation. A recent study provided missing subpopulations such as in urban clinics (Sathar et al.,
female birth projections at the national level for all countries 2015). Although abortion is illegal in Pakistan, the
in the world (Chao et al., 2021b). According to that study, if abortion rate significantly increased from 27 to 50/1000
sex-selective abortion were to happen in Pakistan national for women aged 15 – 49 over the period 2000 – 2012.
wide, the missing female births may contribute as high as Meanwhile, Balochistan experienced the highest abortion
14% of the global numbers during the 2021 – 2100 period. rate of 60/1000 for women aged 15 – 49 among the
Our study reveals the potential future missing female births provinces (Sathar et al., 2014). In addition, our study also
in Pakistan in four provinces, namely, Islamabad (ICT), reinforces the distortion of SRB in Balochistan is highest
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh. For different start among the provinces. These numbers are associated with
years of the SRB imbalance in each province, we identify well-documented demographic phenomena of “missing
the years in which the number of missing female births will women” at the national and provincial levels in Pakistan.
possibly deficit the greatest. The projections results reflect the Although, the compelling evidence of sex selection and
fact that the number of missing female births is a combined excess mortality are not prevailing in Pakistan on the
effect of the SRB inflation process and fertility transition. national level, the absence of evidence is not the evidence
Given the speed of the fertility transition in Pakistan, and of absence. Our subnational study pinpoints the disparity
the estimates from the 2017 – 2018 DHS, we revealed that in SRB and sex-selective abortion on the provincial level
the decline in fertility rates in Pakistan has slowed at both that is masked by national-level results. There is an urgent
the national and subnational levels since the 1990s, and the need to generate high-quality data in Pakistan, particularly
total fertility rate at 3.6 remains higher than in neighboring through census at the subnational level followed by
countries (National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) in-depth research on the persistence of discriminatory
[Pakistan] & ICF, 2019). practices of sex selection and excess mortality for females.
The findings of this study reinforce the persistence of This is the first study on estimating SRB in Pakistan
strong son preferences in Pakistan and identified high-level from 1980 to 2020 and provides scenario-based projections
distortion in Balochistan. The three conditions of Guilmoto of missing female births up to 2050 by province based on a
(2009) hypothesis for the distortion of SRB in Pakistan are Bayesian hierarchical time series model. Our results revealed
currently well aligned: Inherited gender discrimination, important SRB disparity across geographic locations in
preference for large families, and technological Pakistan. Among the seven provinces included in the study,

Volume 8 Issue 2 (2022) 61 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i2.332