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Design+ Modern interpretations of probability

allows for obtaining adequate results based on which as well as the safety and survivability of structurally
effective decisions can be made, which provided that there complex objects of long-term use.
is a sufficient amount of these data. It should be recognized At the same time, it should be noted that the methods
that the degree of confidence in the results obtained can be of fuzzy set theory are not able to fully replace the methods
assessed by calculating the appropriate confidence intervals.
and algorithms associated with specific calculations,
However, the application of probability theory is often which are based on sufficient volume and carefully verified
associated with the need to make poorly justified (or statistical material, and are successfully implemented
not justified at all) simplifications of the analyzed object in the framework of probability theory and its logical
(process) model, which significantly reduces the value of interpretation.
the obtained results and casts doubt on their adequacy. In
addition, applying probability theory becomes practically Acknowledgments
impossible when the primary data volume is insufficient. None.
It should be noted that in many cases (for example, in the
process of calculating the failure rates of an object), the Funding
direct application of probability theory algorithms does None.
not take into account the structure of the object under
study, and is also burdened by the condition of conformity Conflict of interest
of the mode of functioning of the components to the
modes of establishing the corresponding basic indicators The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
(e.g., failure rates of components). Fundamentally,
differences in the structure of objects operating under the Author contributions
influence of various sets of factors with differing intensities Conceptualization: Yuri F. Zinkovsky
should be represented by the same models for applying Formal analysis: Leonid O. Uryvsky
probability theory algorithms. This approach can result in Investigation: All authors
significant methodological errors in the obtained results. Methodology: Yuri F. Zinkovsky
Logical interpretation of probability (in particular, Writing – original draft: All authors
probability logic) overcomes some of the methodological Writing – review & editing: Leonid O. Uryvsky
difficulties of probability theory. Logical probability allows Ethics approval and consent to participate
us to consider the structure of the analyzed object, identify
potentially dangerous places in such a structure, and Not applicable.
consider the possibility of the occurrence and spreading of
an emergency. It also provides additional opportunities to Consent for publication
improve the efficiency of diagnostic algorithms. However, Not applicable.
relying on statistical material in calculating the final results
of the study of probability logic is tightly bound to the Availability of data
availability of appropriate statistical data. Obtaining such Data used in this work are available from the corresponding
data is often realized in conditions that do not correspond author on reasonable request.
to the real conditions of the object’s operation. This can
significantly distort the obtained conclusions, reducing the References
effectiveness of appropriate solutions.
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nd
amounts of incomplete and inaccurate information, which Company; 1995. p. 672. Available from: https://www.scribd.
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usually suitable for processing expert opinions, as well as 2. Bronshtein Ilja N, Semendyayev KA, Musiol G, Heiner M.
recommendations and suggestions based on the experience Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics. Handbook
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indicators of operational reliability and residual resource, a Friend on Sets in Court Tennis. Baltimore, Maryland: The

Volume 2 Issue 2 (2025) 18 doi: 10.36922/dp.6387