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Explora: Environment
and Resource Climate change and apple yield

in both plants and fruits. It has been reported that a shift
in microclimatic conditions such as temperature, rainfall,
and snowfall affects apple production. 5
In the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, 90% of the
population are engaged in agriculture activities, which
generate 62% of the job opportunities in the region. The
area of agricultural land set aside for apple cultivation has
been continuously expanding in Himachal Pradesh with
an average increase of 1.5% every year. 6
Large fruits such as apple, pear, plum, almond, and
walnut achieve optimal growth in cool winter. The
growth of apple fruit is largely dependent on climatic
conditions as this is evidenced by the stage-specific
growth of the plant: dormant (December – March),
flowering and bud formation (April – May), growth and
development (June – September), and pre-dormant stages
(October – November). These growth stages of apple are
particularly vulnerable to irregular weather patterns due
to climate change. Abnormal climatic manifestations
like temperature irregularity, a decline of snow, and
irregular rainfall are becoming more common nowadays.
Since Himachal Pradesh is especially vulnerable to the Figure 1. Three locations – Jubbal, Kotkhai, and Rohru – selected for this
repercussions caused by climate change, there is a crucial study
need to understand the impacts of climate change in the
region, with a special emphasis on the winter and spring study area. The area is located at 31.1231°N (latitude) and
seasons, which play a dominant role in apple production. 77.6536°E (longitude). Three locations – Jubbal, Kotkhai,
The chill unit accumulated during the winter season is and Rohru – which are the major apple-producing areas
important for apple crop to break potential and start of Shimla districts, were selected for this study (Figure 1).
flowering and fruiting in spring. During the spring season, The regional climate is classified as subtropical highland
especially the flowering time, temperatures above 26°C climate under the Koppen climate classification. 9
and below 15°C may affect the apple yield. The spring
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season is the flowering period for apple plant, but rainfall 2.2. Data collection and tools
during this season is catastrophic for apple production, as In this study, historical data related to temperature,
it washes away the pollen, retards the pollen tube growth, rainfall, and snowfall, the major climate variables which
and reduces the bee activity, leads to poor fruit growth. In can affect the apple crop production, were analyzed to
response to the possible climate change and its effects, the delineate the trend of climate change in the region. This
Himachal Pradesh government has already developed a trend was analyzed alongside the trend of ambient air
climate change resilience strategy. Regrettably, there are pollutants. The chill unit (a major contributor to the apple
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no strategies proposed to address the impacts of climate crop production) was also estimated from the analysis.
change on agriculture. Therefore, the present study was
designed to decipher the climate change risk in the Shimla The monthly maximum, minimum, and average
district of Himachal Pradesh and to assess the impact of temperature in Shimla from 1901 to 2020 was collected from
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climate change on the agricultural yield in the region. Indian Metrological Department. The snowfall data from
1985 to 2020 of each winter month starting from November
2. Materials and methods to February was obtained from the database curated by
the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
2.1. Study area (NASA) using the “modern-era retrospective analysis for
Shimla district of the Himachal Pradesh state, situated on research and application” (MERRA-2) model to estimate
the south-western ranges of the Himalayas, was selected snow cover. Similarly, secondary data of CO and CO
2
as the study area. It is one of the predominant districts concentrations were also obtained from MEERA-2 and the
of Himachal Pradesh economically focusing on apple agricultural risk information system (ARIS), respectively.
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cultivation. Figure 1 shows the geographical setting of the The MEERA-2 was developed by NASA using GEOS-

Volume 1 Issue 1 (2024) 2 doi: 10.36922/eer.3608