Page 75 - IJPS-10-3

International Journal of

Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE
The COVID-19 pandemic and fertility decline in

Costa Rica: A deep plunge in the first pandemic
month, a decelerated decline, and a baby bust

due to fleeing migrants

Luis Rosero-Bixby*
Centro Centroamericano de Población, Universidad de Costa Rica, Ciudad Universitaria Rodrigo
Facio, San José, Costa Rica
(This article belongs to Special Issue: Worldwide Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic on Populations’
Mortality and Fertility)

Abstract
Using microdata from the administrative birth registry maintained by the electoral
authority of Costa Rica, this paper aims to address the knowledge gap concerning
childbearing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of rapid fertility decline
since before the pandemic, as compared to the scenario in the highly developed
countries. Monthly fertility rates for the period between 2018 and 2022 were
estimated. The outcome of interest was a year-on-year change in these rates. The
major findings of this study are as follows: (i) A short-lived baby bust in the first full
*Corresponding author: month of the pandemic that is similar to falls observed in other countries (the year-
Luis Rosero-Bixby on-year decrease of fertility in January 2021 was as high as 24% for some groups); (ii) a
(Lrosero@mac.com)
pandemic-associated deceleration in the fertility decline, which could be interpreted
Citation: Rosero-Bixby, L. (2024). as a baby boom if the counterfactual were a continuation of the recent pre-pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic and declining trend; (iii) hints of a baby boom later in the pandemic in communities with
fertility decline in Costa Rica: A
deep plunge in the first pandemic low socioeconomic status, and especially, in families with several children, which could
month, a decelerated decline, and come from unwanted pregnancies; and (iv) an anomalous drop in births from foreign-
a baby bust due to fleeing migrants. born mothers delivered during the first 9 months of the pandemic, which probably
International Journal of Population
Studies, 10(3): 69-77. stemmed from pandemic-motivated migration out of the country. The fertility
https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.1310 plunge in January 2021 seems to be a response to the hardships caused by pandemic
Received: July 14, 2023 mitigation measures in April 2020, as well as by the uncertainties and fears concerning
COVID-19, rather than the response to the physiological harm of the disease itself.
Accepted: December 4, 2023
The native-born Costa Ricans saw some of the lowest total birth rates in the world
Published Online: April 29, 2024 during the pandemic: 1.14 and 1.13 births per woman in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Copyright: © 2024 Author(s). These rates would have been even lower if the sharp birth decline observed before
This is an Open-Access article the pandemic had continued during the two pandemic years under study.
distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution
License, permitting distribution, Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Fertility changes; Migrants; Costa Rica; Baby bust; Baby boom
and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is
properly cited.
Publisher’s Note: AccScience
Publishing remains neutral with 1. Introduction
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional Early evidence from most high-income countries shows that childbearing rate dropped
affiliations. during the first few months of the pandemic, a direct reflection of declining birth rates

Volume 10 Issue 3 (2024) 69 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.1310