Page 15 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Role of nuptiality patterns to fertility

survey period resulted in a reduction of lifetime fertility the study period. The entire difference in lifetime fertility
by 16/1,000 women (2.64%). However, the rise in the was explained by the endowments. The decomposition
percentage of households with the middle wealth indexes of lifetime fertility showed an average difference of 617
across the survey periods resulted in the reduction of CEB/1,000 women between the two survey periods.
lifetime fertility by nearly 7/1,000 women (Table 4). On average, child survival rates among women aged 35
older increased by 50% between the two survey periods.
The significant increment in the proportion of women
living in communities with medium education resulted The finding revealed that the change in lifetime fertility
was explained mainly by shifts in the nuptiality patterns,
in an increase in lifetime fertility by nearly 41/1,000 improvement in socioeconomic conditions, contraceptive
women (6.7%). Contrarily, the significant increment in
the proportion of women living in communities with use dynamics, and changes in child survival. The result
the highest education resulted in a reduction of lifetime of the study generally revealed that the gain in child
survival (77.71%), shifts in nuptiality patterns (27%), and
fertility by 76/1,000 women (12.3%). The increase in socioeconomic factors (19.74%) contributed to lifetime
percentage of women living in the communities with fertility transition during the period between the two
medium wealth significantly contributed to a rise in surveys.
the lifetime fertility, which went up by 5/1,000 women
between the two surveys, whereas the contraceptive use 4.1. The evolving nuptiality patterns have
change between the two surveys was associated with an significantly driven the decline in lifetime fertility
increase of lifetime fertility by 173/1,000 women. The rates
change in the nuptiality patterns between the two surveys In general, early marriage and marital instability are highly
contributed to 26.57% of the change in lifetime fertility. prevalent in Ethiopia (Kedir et al., 2024). However, the
Specifically, it is the combination of reduction in the results of the study revealed that marriages were more
proportion of married women (2%), reduction in early stable in 2016 compared to the situation in 2000. Early
marriage and postponement of marriage, and increase marriage does not necessarily contribute to the increase
in marital stability contributing to the reduction in the in fertility. Rather it is the marital stability that positively
lifetime fertility (Table 4).
contributed to the rise in fertility. In agreement with
If early unstable marriages among women aged 35 our findings, prior research indicates that many couples
and above in the year 2000 had persisted at the same experience stability or even improving satisfaction levels,
level as in 2016, the average number of CEB would have suggesting that marriages become more stable as couples
decreased by 319/1,000 women. Conversely, if early stable navigate their relationships (Karney & Bradbury, 2020).
marriages among women in this age group in the year This increase in the stability of marriage contributed to
2000 had been consistent with the 2016 levels, the CEB lifetime fertility increase (45%); however, this increase was
would have increased by 129/1,000 women. In addition, counterweighted by the positive contribution of the decline
the proportion of women aged 35 and above having early in proportion married, the postponement of marriage
premarital sex with late stable marriages in the year 2000 to late age, and the high prevalence of marital instability
remained the same as in 2016, and the average number to the lifetime fertility decline (72%). Thus, the evolving
of CEB had increased by 84/1,000 women. Similarly, if nuptiality patterns among Ethiopian women resulted in
late marital stability among women aged 35 and above in a net 27% decline in lifetime fertility between during the
the year 2000 had matched the levels observed in 2016, periods spanning the two survey years.
the CEB would have risen by 66/1,000 women. Finally, Women who marry early or maintain stable marriage
if the average number of deceased children among are more likely to have longer reproductive years and give
women aged 35 and above in 2000 had remained at the too many births, obviously contributing to high fertility
2016 levels, the CEB would have increased by 476/1000 rates (Shakya & Gubhaju, 2016). Those with multiple
women (Table 4). marriages typically experience diverse reproductive
4. Discussion patterns and behaviors that facilitate lower fertility rates.
Conversely, women married once may adhere more
This study sought to examine how changes in nuptiality closely to traditional family structures, which results in
patterns influence the lifetime fertility transition among higher fertility rates due to societal pressures and norms
Ethiopian women aged 35 and older between the years surrounding childbearing (Orwa et al., 2023; Tsegaye
2000 and 2016. A multivariate decomposition method Negash, 2023). This complex interplay highlights how
was employed to quantify changes in lifetime fertility and marital stability significantly influences fertility outcomes
identify the main factors driving these changes throughout among women.

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 9 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.5749