Page 9 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Role of nuptiality patterns to fertility

The relationship between nuptiality and fertility has comparable across settings and time, DHSs are recognized
garnered significant attention in demographic research, as an important source for monitoring population
mainly through diffusion theory. This theory posits that indicators and vital statistics in middle- and low-income
changes in social norms and behaviors, such as marriage countries (Central Statistical Agency [CSA] [Ethiopia] and
patterns, spread through populations and influence fertility ICF, 2016; CSA [Ethiopia] and ORC Macro, 2001). The
rates. Nuptiality patterns contributing to fertility changes DHS data is freely available, and the public can access it
are particularly relevant in various global regions, where with a formal request (http://www.measuredhs.com/data/
shifts in marriage practices have been observed alongside available-datasets.cfm). This study is based on the analysis
fertility transitions. Schneider’s findings (Schneider, 2015) of data from women aged 35 and above collected in 2000
showed that economic conditions have a significant impact and 2016. In other words, individuals aged 35 and above
on family formation and fertility behaviors, reinforcing were examined to evaluate changes in the extent of lifetime
that socioeconomic factors are integral to understanding fertility and its influencing factors. This age range was
the diffusion of nuptiality patterns. As societies evolve, the chosen because their impact on overall fertility is negligible,
diffusion of new norms surrounding marriage and family making it a suitable approximation for completed fertility.
formation continues to reshape fertility landscapes.
2.1. Variables and measurements
Increased access to education is an innovation that
empowers women with knowledge about reproductive In this study, the primary outcome variable was measured
health, family planning, and the benefits of smaller family as a discrete count of the number of children ever born
sizes. As more women access education, the flow of alive (CEB) among married a woman aged 35 and above
information increases, leading to broader acceptance of in the 2000 and 2016 surveys at the time of the survey data
contraceptive use. Women who adopt contraceptives would collection. The CEB assesses the actual fertility of a woman.
share their use experiences with peers, further accelerating At the same time, the total fertility rate (TFR) relies on recent
the diffusion of this practice within communities. With the behavior (typically over the last 3 or 5 years), excluding
rise in the levels of education and the contraceptive use consideration for children born earlier. CEB includes all
becoming more common, societal norms around marriage live-born children and excludes stillbirths. The choice of
and family size may shift. Over time, as more women CEB over TFR is based on the recognition that TFR, though
observe the benefits of education and contraceptive widely used, has limitations. TFR projects the number of
use, these practices may become normalized, leading children a woman would have starting from childbirth at
to widespread adoption across various demographics. age 15 to the end of her reproductive life span if the age-
A 2017 study by Hertrich (2017) examined trends in age specific fertility patterns remain constant. The assessment
at marriage and their impact on fertility transitions in sub- of how the change in nuptiality patterns contributes to
Saharan Africa. The study found that increases in the age fertility transition incorporates individual- and group-
at first marriage were associated with the onset of fertility level characteristics as the predictors. The descriptions of
decline. The combined effects of nuptiality patterns, many variables are available in the standard recode manual
socioeconomic factors and contraceptive use are likely to of DHS (ICF, 2018), and the specific descriptions of the
lead to a measurable decline in fertility rates by 2016. variables and their measurements utilized for this study

2. Data and methods are shown in (Table 1).
This study used the Ethiopia Demographic and Health 2.1.1. Operational definitions
Surveys (DHSs) that were carried out in 2000 and The total number of CEB: This parameter refers to the
2016. These nationally representative surveys collected number of children born to women during a specific age
information on geographic, socioeconomic, demographic, classification and the average number of children born
health, and nutrition-related characteristics of individuals to a given reproductive age group. Until the time of data
and households from women aged 15 to 49 years. The study collection, the CEB is treated as an indicator and measure
used a repeated cross-sectional comparative study design of a woman’s lifetime fertility.
and pooled data from the 2000 to 2016 DHS. The data
were obtained using a stratified two-stage cluster sampling Nuptiality patterns: This parameter encompasses
approach. In the first stage, 645 enumeration areas (EAs) magnitude of marriage (proportion of married women),
from 2016 and 539 clusters for the 2000 survey were timing of marriage (early and late marriage), and marital
selected with probability proportional to EA size (based on instability (stable and unstable marriage).
the 2007 PHC) and independent sample selection in each Lifetime fertility: The total number of births during the
sampling stratum. Because of its design, which is highly lifetime was measured.

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 3 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.5749