Page 156 - IJPS-11-5

International Journal of
Population Studies Contraception and fertility in Zambia

the mid-20 century (Szreter, 1993). This theory posits between 1992 and 2018. For the analysis, we used the
th
that as countries evolve economically and socially, they women’s datasets (IR recode) that contained data on
undergo a predictable series of demographic transitions reproductive-aged women (15 – 49 years old). The ZDHSs
(Bongaarts, 2009; Galor, 2012; Szreter, 1993). The central were surveys conducted nationwide and represented
idea is that birth rates fall as societies become modern all regions. The DHS used a two-stage stratified cluster
and experience economic growth (Bongaarts, 2009; Galor, sampling approach to select households, dividing
2012). Increased urbanization, greater education for each region into rural and urban segments. The initial
women, wider contraception access, and shifts in cultural phase involved selecting enumeration areas based on
and social norms are often contributing factors (Akwara proportional allocation to the region’s size. During the
et al., 2023; Götmark & Andersson, 2020). second stage, household listing operations took place
in all selected clusters. The DHS usually selects 20 – 25
The demographic transition model provides valuable
insights into historical population changes and can help households/cluster (Croft et al., 2018; Zambia Statistics
predict future demographic shifts in countries undergoing Agency et al., 2019). The relevant variables for this study
socioeconomic transformation. In Zambia, increasing were extracted from the women’s recode dataset. The study
contraceptive use can be seen as a driver of fertility included six samples of sexually active, fecund women aged
decline, moving the country toward the later stages of the 15 – 49 years who were not pregnant. The analysis included
demographic transition. This theory posits that as access to 5,181 women in 1992, 5,938 in 1996, 5,844 in 2001, 5,347
FP improves and cultural attitudes shift, fertility rates decline, in 2007, 12,653 in 2013, and 10,576 in 2018. The ZDHS
and families begin to prioritize quality of life over large family report (Zambia Statistics Agency et al., 2019) and other
sizes, reflecting broader socioeconomic development. sources (Croft et al., 2018) provided detailed explanations
of the sampling procedures.
Easterlin’s economic framework of fertility is an
economic theory that integrates economic and social factors 2.2. Data collection
to explain fertility decisions. It suggests that fertility levels The research utilized a cross-sectional approach to
are influenced by the balance between desired family size concurrently assess exposures and outcomes among
(based on sociocultural norms and economic conditions) participants at a distinct time juncture. Cross-sectional
and the costs of achieving that size, including the availability investigations are instrumental in ascertaining prevalence
and use of contraception (Easterlin, 1975). In Zambia, the rates and exploring associations among diverse variables
transition in contraceptive use reduces the costs (economic, and outcomes through the analysis of either singular
health, and time related) associated with childbearing, or longitudinal data. The ZDHS questionnaire was
leading to adjustments in fertility dynamics as individuals administered to all women aged 15 – 49 years who either
align their reproductive behavior with their socioeconomic spent a night in the household before the interview or were
aspirations. Both theories posit that social development usual members in all selected households for the 1992 –
factors, such as improved access to contraception, higher 2018 DHSs. Questions about contraception, fertility, and
female educational attainment, and greater women’s reproductive health were asked of these women. Data were
empowerment, play significant roles in shaping the fertility collected by well-trained enumerators who underwent
patterns of women in their reproductive years (Bongaarts, intensive field training (Croft et al., 2018; Zambia Statistics
2017; Dasgupta et al., 2022; Macunovich, 1998). In Agency et al., 2019).
accordance with the theoretical underpinning employed
in this research, it is anticipated that when a country 2.3. Variables and measurement
experiences a trend of increased contraceptive use over time, The outcome variables for this study are fertility rate and
its fertility and teenage pregnancy rates are anticipated to teenage pregnancy. The fertility rate was measured using
decline. Therefore, examining the magnitude of the effect of the DHS variable, “children ever born to a woman at the
contraceptive transition on fertility dynamics is key because time of the survey.” This variable was collected as a count
such information provides critical insights for designing variable in the DHS. The second dependent variable is
evidence-based reproductive health policies and programs “teenage pregnancy.” Experience of teenage pregnancy was
aimed at achieving sustainable population growth. measured as a binary outcome (yes/no). The variable was
2. Data and methods measured as a composite variable, which included teenage
girls aged 15 – 19 years who were either currently pregnant
2.1. Data sources or had ever been pregnant.
The study utilized data collected from six Zambia The study chose the independent variables based on
Demographic and Health Surveys (ZDHSs) conducted their relevance in previous research as key determinants

Volume 11 Issue 5 (2025) 150 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.4866