Page 73 - IJPS-11-6

International Journal of

Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE
The paradox of urban decline in India

Nawaj Sarif* and Archana K. Roy
Department of Migration and Urban Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai,
Maharashtra, India

Abstract

Urban shrinkage has become a global challenge in the field of urban studies. Despite
significant progress in understanding urban shrinkage in developed countries,
further exploration is necessary to comprehend the recent emergence of urban
shrinkage in developing countries. This study explores the spatial pattern of urban
shrinkage and urban decline and examines the associated factors of population
decline in Indian urban centers. The phenomenon of urban decline in India presents
a paradox as the country witnesses a steady growth in urbanization, yet some urban
centers are facing a decline in population. Results showed that every one in nine
urban centers was declining, with one-fifth of them shrinking in terms of population.
The urban growth rate and level of urbanization are major contributing factors to
this decline, along with city-level characteristics such as small population size, low
population density, low fertility, and a higher aging population. To address this rising
threat, urban policymakers in India must plan for the growth and development of
declining and shrinking cities through revitalization programs, capital investment,
infrastructure development, and micro-regional planning. Further, encouraging
*Corresponding author: inclusive development for small and larger cities can help achieve sustainable urban
Nawaj Sarif development in India.
(nawajsarif25@gmail.com)
Citation: Sarif, N. & Roy, A.K.
(2025). The paradox of urban Keywords: Urban decline; Shrinking city; Population decline; Urban growth; Factors
decline in India. International
Journal of Population Studies.
11(6): 67-80.
https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.3107 1. Introduction
Received: March 6, 2024
The emergence of a global multidimensional phenomenon known as “urban shrinkage,”
Revised: May 14, 2024 which is characterized by a decline in population in urban centers, has become
Accepted: May 16, 2024 increasingly evident in both developed and developing countries (Martinez-Fernandez
Published online: July 15, 2024 et al., 2012; Schett, 2011; Slach et al., 2019; Wolff & Wiechmann, 2017). It has been
considered a serious challenge for the contemporary urban world (Martinez-Fernandez
Copyright: © 2025 Author(s). et al., 2015). Evidence shows that urban shrinkage is predominant, especially in
This is an Open-Access article
distributed under the terms of the developed countries, but it also occurs in developing countries, although the nature,
Creative Commons Attribution pattern, and drivers are different (Pourahmad et al., 2016). Previous studies have used
License, permitting distribution,
and reproduction in any medium, several definitions and indicators to identify shrinking cities. These include negative
provided the original work is population growth (Li & Mykhnenko, 2018; Turok & Mykhnenko, 2007), vacant houses
properly cited. (Oswalt & Rieniets, 2006), the area of vacant land (Sakamoto et al., 2017), economic
Publisher’s Note: AccScience transformation (Stryjakiewicz, 2013), and the growth of employment, gross domestic
Publishing remains neutral with product, and population size (Ma et al., 2020). The Shrinking Cities International
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional Research Network (SCIRN) provides a comprehensive definition of a shrinking city
affiliations. as a densely populated urban center with a minimum population of 10,000 that has

Volume 11 Issue 6 (2025) 67 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.3107