Page 75 - IJPS-11-6

International Journal of
Population Studies The paradox of urban decline in India

The study considered population decline as a key model was performed multiple times for different groups
indicator of urban shrinkage like many other studies, of urban centers to yield better explanations of the
as data on economic dimensions at the city level were associated factors and intensity of the effect. The groups of
not available. The classifications of urban center as per urban centers in this context refer to the entirety of urban
population growth are growing, stabilizing, declining, and centers at the surveyed site, encompassing urban centers
shrinking. Urban centers with negative population growth without larger agglomerations, urban centers without
from 2001 to 2011 are considered as declining, while those class I cities, and urban centers consisting of only class I
that had experienced population drop for two consecutive cities. The purpose of the analysis was to identify the key
decades (1991–2001 and 2001–2011) are considered demographic and local characteristics that affect urban
shrinking. Similarly, growing urban centers are those that decline.
have a population growth rate above 2%, and stabilizing Before going into details of the findings, it is pertinent
urban centers are those that have a growth rate between to understand the concept and definition of urban. As per
0% and 2% per annum. The attribute table with city-level the Census of India, there is a two-fold classification of
information was linked to the spatial layer of towns/cities’ the urban centers, i.e., statutory town and census town .
1
2
locations for further analysis. Further, based on city population size, the Census of India
In addition, the bivariate local Moran’s-I has been provides a six-fold classification, covering Class I (>100,000
applied to examine the association between the level of population), Class II (50,000 to 99,999), Class III (20,000
urbanization and the share of declining urban centers to 49,999), Class IV (10,000 to 19,999), Class V (5000 to
across the districts. The analysis was performed to identify 9,999), and Class VI towns (<5,000). Furthermore, this
the spatial clusters where the share of declining urban study used “shrinking city” as a scientific term, and “urban
centers was higher. The following formula was applied in centers” was used as a neutral term to describe urban
that analysis: settlements. According to census classifications, urban
settlements with populations above 100,000 are regarded
n ∑∑ − jW (x −x) (y as cities. In a few cases, the terms “town” and “city” are
i
Bivariate Local Moran’s I = * ij i j Y) (I) used synonymously.
S 0 ∑ i (y i − Y) 2
3. Results
where x and y represent used variables; x̄ represents
the mean of x; Ȳ represents the mean of y; n represents 3.1. Trajectory of urban decline in India
the number of spatial units; W is the standardized weight Urban population growth in India is the result of the
ij
matrix between observation i and j with zeroes on the collective growth of urban centers, as well as the newly
diagonal; and S represents aggregated spatial weights, classified urban settlements. Therefore, urban growth
0
i.e., S =∑ ∑w . is significantly associated with the growth rate of urban
i j
0
ij
In addition to that, bivariate analysis was performed centers. Figure 1 illustrates the interconnectedness
between urban growth and the growth pattern of urban
to show the share distribution of growing, stabilizing, and centers, demonstrating how the trajectory of urban
declining urban centers and underscore the characteristics growth has changed in the past century, specifically
in which population decline in urban centers is prominent. the share of growing, stabilizing, and declining urban
City-level background characteristics variables were centers in India from 1911 to 2011 and the annual
entered into this analysis as explanatory variables. A binary urban growth rate. Over the past century, a significant
logistic regression analysis was applied to understand the transition has occurred in India’s urban landscape. In
factors associated with population decline. The dependent the early decades, urban centers struggled to grow, with
variable for this analysis was population decline (“1” if the majority experiencing population decline. However,
declining and “0” if not declining), while the independent subsequently, the urbanization process accelerated, and
variables included size-class of urban centers, density, the urban population stabilized and began to increase.
child-woman ratio, and share of the older population in In 1981, the urban growth rate reached its highest level
terms of demographic characteristics. In other local-level
factors, civic status, distance to the nearest city, urban 1 Statutory town: All places with a municipality, corporation,

agglomeration, year of origin, and boundary change were cantonment board or notified town area committee, etc.
included as explanatory variables. The child-woman ratio, 2 Census town: Places that follow all three criteria in the
which is the number of children (0–6 years of age) per following: (i) a minimum population of 5000; (ii) at least
75% of the male main working population engaging in non-
1000 women, serves as a proxy for fertility data since direct agricultural pursuits; and (iii) a density of population of at
estimation is not possible in the census. The regression least 400 persons per square kilometer.

Volume 11 Issue 6 (2025) 69 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.3107