Page 79 - IJPS-11-6

International Journal of
Population Studies The paradox of urban decline in India

Figure 5. Spatial distribution of growing, stabilizing, and declining urban centers in India, 2001–2011

decline among urban centers. The share of declining urban other urban centers (Table 4). This indicates that a small
centers was higher among urban centers where the area population size is significantly associated with population
remained the same (11.8%) or expanded (14%). Aging is decline. Similarly, urban centers with higher population
another critical factor responsible for population decline, densities are less likely to experience population decline
with 38% of towns with an older population of more than and vice versa, although it is not statistically significant.
12% experiencing population decline. In contrast, among
towns where the share of the older population was low (less In addition, the child–woman ratio (fertility) is a
than 8%), only 1.9% were declining. significant indicator of population decline in urban centers,
and all four models confirm the association. Urban centers
3.5. Demographic factors of urban decline with a lower child–woman ratio (below 200) were four
This study attempted to examine the impact of times more likely to experience population decline than
demographic factors such as population size, density, those with a high child-woman ratio. However, this factor
child-woman ratio, and aging on population decline. was more crucial for cities. The last model indicates that
The results indicate that the population size of an urban class I cities with low child–woman ratios were 27 times
center is a crucial factor in population decline. The first more likely to experience population decline. Population
model shows that urban centers in class V (3.606 times) aging is also a critical factor in population decline. The
and VI (15.836 times), and in the second model, class IV results indicate that cities with a 12% or higher share of the
(2.489 times), V (5.817 times), and VI (24.732 times) are older population were nine times more likely to experience
more likely to experience population decline compared to population decline than the reference category (Table 4).

Volume 11 Issue 6 (2025) 73 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.3107