Page 84 - IJPS-11-6

International Journal of
Population Studies The paradox of urban decline in India

census towns and cantonment boards are more generally This study has added new insights about urban
experiencing population decline. These urban centers face shrinkage in the context of developing countries. However,
many challenges, including a lack of basic infrastructure, this study has some limitations. The unavailability of the
health facilities, housing shortages, and insufficient funds. latest census datasets restricted the study till the year 2011,
In addition, distance from the class I city adversely affects and with the available city-level information, this study was
the growth rate of the nearby urban centers. The same was only able to determine the associated factor for population
argued by Tripathi (2021) that urban centers located near decline in Indian urban centers. Further research may
larger cities experience a faster pace of population growth, focus on using timely available satellite-based data and
but urban centers that are farther away from larger cities case-specific studies to further explore this phenomenon.
experience a low growth rate. One thing needs to be pointed
out: population decline in urban centers was not primarily 5. Conclusions
due to a reduction in the area of the urban center. Contrary The global phenomenon of urban shrinkage has become
to the life cycle theory that the older cities are bound to a major threat to urban planning. The impact is expected
shrink while the new city will experience rapid growth, the to be severe in developing countries. This study analyzed
urban context in India presents a rather different scene as the the dynamics of urban growth in Indian urban centers and
newly formed urban centers were declining more compared highlights the spatial pattern of urban shrinkage in India. It
to the old urban centers (Czamanski & Dani, 2016). also examines the associated factors for population decline
Several other reasons were pointed out by other in Indian urban centers. The study has found that during
research for urban decline such as strict urban definition the period of 1991–2011, one out of every nine urban
(Ganapati, 2014), poor physical infrastructure, lack of centers in India experienced a population decline, with
facilities, health infrastructure and opportunities (Bhagat, one-fifth of them shrinking. This rapid decline has been
2004; Ganapati, 2014; Guin, 2019), selective out-migration observed in the majority of states in India over the past
(UN-Habitat, 2008), unemployment at the origin place two decades. A unique aspect of India’s urban shrinkage
of migration (Guin, 2019; Marchang, 2017), and wage is that it is happening in both larger cities and smaller
difference (Indian Council of Social Science Research, urban centers. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that
2011). The leading cause of population decline is out- population decline in urban centers is largely associated
migration, which usually takes place from underdeveloped with factors such as urban growth rate and the level of
to more competitive locations (Wiechmann & Wolff, 2013) urbanization. Local-level factors, such as population size,
and this type of migration is likely to accelerate more in density, governance, fertility, household density, and aging,
future decades due to changing labor market demand are also important determinants of population decline
(Bhagat & Mohanty, 2009; Dyson & Visaria, 2004). Apart among urban centers in India.
from all these investments, policy implications, availability As urban decline is becoming more prevalent in both
of resources, quality of life, and facility also play key roles in developed and underdeveloped regions of India, it will pose
urban shrinkage (Kundu, 2005; Li & Zhang 2020; Hamilton a significant challenge for urban planners and policymakers
& Colocousis 2004). It is important to note that the findings in the coming decades. Therefore, it is essential to prioritize
of this study are unable to capture all the drivers of urban the growth and development of small- and medium-sized
shrinkage; rather, it indicates a set of conditions in which urban centers and adopt a focused development agenda
the city experiences population declines. for shrinking cities. Capital investment, infrastructure, and
Overall, this study unequivocally highlights the micro-level development planning are necessary to sustain
substantial disparity in the growth of urban centers across population growth in small-medium urban centers.
different states. It is a stark reality that while some urban In addition, better implementation of decentralization
centers are experiencing rapid expansion, others are policies may also help with integrated urban development
grappling with a decline in population. This phenomenon and achieve higher economic growth (Vaddiraju 2015;
can be attributed to the significant occurrence of both Xavier et al 2021). It is better to address urban shrinkage
urban-to-urban migration and urban-to-rural migration. at an early stage before any further deterioration. Further
The presence of urban shrinkage among various urban research on the economic and social aspects of shrinking
centers in India is a clear indicator of the alarming levels cities in India is required to disentangle the complexities of
of inequality that persists across a different set of urban urban decline.
centers. It is evident that this phenomenon has the
potential to exacerbate urbanization inequality and further Acknowledgments
widen the gap in development between regions. None.

Volume 11 Issue 6 (2025) 78 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.3107