Page 64 - IJPS-2-2

International Journal of Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Transition in risks of higher order births in

Nepal: a life table analysis

*
Ramesh Babu Kafle
Centre for Population and Development, Purbanchal University, Biratnagar, Nepal

Abstract: This paper examines declining fertility in a low development setting. Specifically, this paper
analyzes transitions in age at first birth and of the length of birth intervals, the variations of the length
of birth intervals by selected socioeconomic and demographic factors, and the determinants of the risk of
higher order birth in Nepal by using the DHS data. There is very little change in the age at start of fertility
schedule but the proportion of women progressing to the next higher order birth from the second, third
and fourth births has declined over time. Increases in the median length of higher order birth intervals and
decline in the ultimate proportions of women attaining higher order births drive declines in the pace
of childbearing and overall fertility level. Controlling for other factors, higher order births are more likely
among women who had given a previous birth before the survey period or women who had a fe-
male birth compared to women who did not have such births. Significantly, lower hazard ratio of the
second birth is observed among women who are more educated, working in non-agriculture sector, from
well-to-do households, with higher age at first birth, and whose first child survived during infancy.
Keywords: age at first birth, birth interval, pace of childbearing, relative risk, life table

*Correspondence to: Ramesh Babu Kafle, Centre for Population and Development (CPAD), Purbanchal University, Bi-
ratnagar, Nepal; Email: rbkafle@gmail.com
Received: October 31, 2016; Accepted: December 4, 2016; Published Online: January 5, 2017
Citation: Kafle R B. (2016). Transition in risks of higher order births in Nepal: a life table analysis. International
Journal of Population Studies, vol.2(2): 58–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.18063/IJPS.2016.02.005.

1. Introduction
1.1 Rationale

Fertility has been declining in Nepal for more than three decades in spite of its low development set-
ting. Nepal is one of the poorest countries to join the set of developing countries undergoing fertility
decline (Caldwell, 1998). Over the past 35 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Nepal declined from
6.33 in 1976 to 2.6 in 2011 (CBS, 2003; MOHP, New ERA and ICF International, 2012). The de- Copyright: © 2016 Ramesh
cline began in the early 1980s with a slow pace (Acharya, 1998; CBS, 2003; Das Dangol, Retherford Babu Kafle. This is an Open
st
and Thapa, 1997) and has accelerated over time. The first half of the first decade of the 21 century Access article distributed un-
der the terms of the Creative
saw an unprecedented decline, with TFR declining from 4.1 in 2001 to 3.1 in 2006. The pace of de- Commons Attribution-NonCo-
cline has since slowed. Nepal’s TFR reached 2.6 in 2011. mmercial 4.0 International Li-
Fertility decline is a result of limiting the number of children by couples that is associated with cense (http://creativecomm-
ons.org/ licenses/by-nc/4.0/),
multiple factors. These factors include late start of childbearing due to late marriage or late entry into permitting all non-commerc-
sexual union; stopping childbearing due to voluntary sterilization; and prolonged birth spacing due ial use, distribution, and repr-
to wide use of contraception and abortion. Differences in the risk of first birth, in transitions to high- oduction in any medium, pro-
vided the original work is pro-
er order births, and in lengths of time between successive births cause fertility differentials (Conde- perly cited.

58 International Journal of Population Studies | 2016, Volume 2, Issue 2