Page 23 - IJPS-4-1

Xiaorong Gu

Table 2. Tempo of transition to first marriage, by birth cohort, gender, and hukou origin (weighted).
Birth cohort Mean age By age 30: % married
All Rural female Rural male Urban female Urban male
1946–1955 24.06 (0.07) 93% 0.98 (0.00) 0.92 (0.01) 0.96 (0.01) 0.86 (0.01)
1956–1965 23.74 (0.05) 96% 0.99 (0.00) 0.96 (0.01) 0.98 (0.00) 0.92 (0.01)
1966–1975 23.51 (0.05) 95% 0.98 (0.00) 0.94 (0.01) 0.97 (0.00) 0.90 (0.01)
1976–1985 24.38 (0.06) 95% 0.99 (0.00) 0.95 (0.01) 0.97 (0.01) 0.90 (0.01)

Table 3. Cox hazard ratio for age of first marriage.
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Demographic characteristics
Birth cohort (ref.=1976–1985)
1946–1955 0.79(0.02)*** 0.83(0.02)*** 0.83(0.02)***
1956–1965 0.97(0.02) 0.97(0.02) 0.97(0.02)
1966–1975 0.99(0.02) 0.92(0.02)*** 0.92(0.02)***
Male (1=yes) 0.66(0.02)*** 0.64(0.02)*** 0.62(0.02)***
Han ethnicity (1=yes) 0.94(0.03) 1.03(0.03) 1.03(0.03)
Data wave (ref.=2012 wave)
2013 wave 0.97(0.02)* 0.96(0.01)* 0.96(0.01)*
2015 wave 1.00(0.02) 0.97(0.02) 0.97(0.02)
Educational attainment (ref.=primary school and less)
Middle school 0.72(0.01)*** 0.87(0.02)*** 0.87(0.02)***
Junior college and more 0.47(0.01)*** 0.68(0.03)*** 0.68(0.03)***
Family background
Urban hukou (1=yes) 0.79(0.02)*** 0.75(0.02)***
Father’s education (ref.=primary school )
Junior middle school 0.97(0.02)** 0.97(0.02)**
High school and more 0.96(0.02)*** 0.96(0.02)***
Father’s employment status (ref.=farming)
Full-time employed 0.94(0.02)** 0.94(0.02)**
Others 0.89(0.02)*** 0.89(0.02)***
Regional location (ref.=east)
Central 1.21(0.02)*** 1.21(0.02)***
West 1.25(0.02)*** 1.26(0.02)***
Northeast 1.34(0.03)*** 1.34(0.03)***
Interaction effect
Male*urban hukou 1.10(0.03)***
Log-likelihood −1,83,120.69 −1,72,560.12 −1,28,922.61
Observations 18,984 18,984 18,984
Note: The complete-case analysis shown here is based on a sample after list-wise deletion of missing data on family background variables. *p<0.05. **p<0.01. ***p<0.001

in first marriage age for respondents due to longer time spent in high education is compensated by their expedited transition to
marriage within in very short window: 34% of youths get married 3 years after college and another 28% in 5 years after.
Table 3 presents the estimates of the Cox hazard ratios for the age of first marriage in a stepwise analysis. Model 1
estimates hazard ratios by including birth cohort, educational attainment, and demographic controls. Model 2 adds family

International Journal of Population Studies | 2018, Volume 4, Issue 1 17