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Bordone, and Muttarak, 2016; Mencarini and Tanturri, 2006). Significant variation in IFS by region was observed in a
similar study in Nigeria (Akeju, Owoeye, Ayeni, et al., 2021). The lower IFS in the South-south and Southwest regions
could be associated with the higher number of women in the southern regions compared to the Northern regions who
are educated and participate in household decisions (National Population Commission (NPC) [Nigeria] and ICF, 2019).
However, of note is that the Southeast has more pervasive norms of son preference, and pockets of localities, where large
family size was traditionally celebrated, this culture has continued to wane, but the TFR in Southeast region remains the
highest (4.7) compared to 4.0 in the South-south and 3.9 in the Southwest (Isiugo-Abanihe and Nwokocha, 2008; National
Population Commission (NPC) [Nigeria] and ICF, 2019; Nwokocha, 2007).
Women whose occupations were in sales/services and agriculture were significantly less likely to have IFS 0 – 3
versus 5 compared to women in other occupations. This is expected considering that 95% of Nigerian women work in the
informal sector, where they dominate in sales and services (International Labour Organization, 2018; National Population
Commission (NPC) [Nigeria] and ICF, 2019). Small-scale agriculture, sales, and services constitute a large part of the
informal economy in Nigeria. Women who work in these occupations are more likely to have attained no formal education
or primary education, which have low income, and perceive children as old age security. These factors have been shown
to predicts high fertility preferences in Nigeria and other countries (Akeju, Owoeye, Ayeni, et al., 2021; Hilgeman and
Butts, 2009; Mberu and Reed, 2014; Muhoza, Broekhuis, and Hooimeijer, 2014).
Being a Muslim was a strong predictor of IFS of five and above. Preference for larger family size among Muslim
than Christian women in Nigeria is consistent with past studies in Nigeria and India (Murthi, 2002; Isiugo-Abanihe,
1994). However, the large family size preference among Muslim women may be more of a function of other factors, not
the Islamic religion. Many Islamic countries have achieved sustained transition in fertility, and being a Muslim did not
significantly predict larger family size in Ghana holding the husband’s religion constant (Gyimah, Takyi, and Tenkorang,
2008). Polygyny and early marriage in the predominantly Muslim Northeast and Northwest regions in Nigeria may be the
drivers of large family size desire among Muslim women. Early marriage was significantly associated with IFS of 5 and
over in this study, and in many previous studies, polygyny and early marriage were strongly associated with large family
size desire and lifetime fertility (Ariho and Kabagenyi, 2020; Izugbara and Ezeh, 2010; Yaya, Odusina, and Bishwajit,
2019). The Nigerian population policy for sustainable development also stipulates the age of 18 for marriage. There is a
need to enforce this policy as well as discourage polygyny and serial remarriage by women in these regions.
Women who lost a child were more likely to report IFS five or more than women who never lost a child. This result
demonstrates the strong link between child death and fertility and confirms the replacement fertility hypothesis (Westoff,
Bietsch, and Hong, 2013). Given that women are likely to achieve their IFS (Fan and Maitra, 2011), where there is no
supply constraint, the Nigerian Government needs to intensify its effort to implement strategies stipulated in the country’s
national population policy to lower under-5 mortality to achieve the target reduction in TFR. As mortality declines,
particularly under-five mortality, one of the responses is a decline in fertility as people are now sure their children would
survive to old age (Mohanty, Fink, and Chauhan, et al., 2016; Pullu, Shoumaker, and Becker, et al., 2013).
Another interesting finding in this study is the strong evidence of an intergenerational effect. The respondents who
have five or more siblings also are more likely to have IFS of 5 and above. The previous studies have documented
intergeneration transfer of fertility behavior (Booth and Kee, 2009; Kumar, Bordone, and Muttarak, 2016; Morosow and
Trappe, 2018; Silalahi and Setyonaluri, 2018; Isiugo-Abanihe, 1994; Mencarini and Tanturri, 2006). This speaks to the
impact of family-level socialization in shaping behavior, and the need to engage behavior change models in the country’s
programs to achieve a lower fertility preference regime.
Gender norms and ideology as indicated by participation in four household decisions and attitude to wife beating were
predictive of IFS. Women who participated in no household decisions and justified wife beating for any reason were more
likely to have IFS of five and above. This affirms the critical role of gender in fertility choices and health outcomes (Rossi
and Rouanet, 2015; World Health Organization, 2021). A multi-sectoral approach to addressing norms that reinforce male
dominance and superiority are recommended, and the existing policies in Nigeria on gender equality and equity should be
enforced to facilitate lower IFS among women.
Marital status, household wealth index, and type of marriage were not statistically significant predictors of IFS
among women aged 15–29. Given the close relationship between household wealth and education (although there was
no multicollinearity problem between them in this study VIF <5), the result was not unexpected in a model that has the
two variables. That women in a cohabiting union desired fewer children was expected. Although it was not statistically
significant, previous studies link consensual/cohabiting unions with fewer children and low fertility desire than formalized
marital unions (Hiekel and Castro‐Martín, 2014; Laplante, Castro-Martin, and Cortina, et al., 2016). In a previous Nigerian
study, women in polygynous unions in Northern Nigeria had many children to avert divorce and retain their husband’s

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