Page 31 - IJPS-9-1

International Journal of
Population Studies Population aging and immigration in Japan

Table 3. Coefficients of the variables from ordinary least squares regression models, Japan, 1975-2019
Explanatory variables (% change) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Intercept 0.369 (0.239) 2.604 (4.039)*** 3.116 (2.395)*
Aged 60 – 64 –0.304 (–2.163)* - -
t‑1
Aged 65+ 1.018 (2.203)* - -
t‑1
Fertility t‑1 –0.437 (–2.044)* –0.478 (–2.230)* –0.505 (–2.224)*
Unemployment –0.122 (–2.516)* –0.141 (–2.902)** –0.122 (–2.304)*
t–1
Hourly earnings –0.198 (–1.392) –0.312 (–2.129)* –0.253 (–1.569)
t–1
Youth dependency ratio - –0.515 (–1.898) -
t‑1
Old-age dependency ratio - - 0.056 (0.172)
t‑1
p-value on joint 0.001 0.006 0.047
R 2 0.422 0.321 0.220
Adjusted R 2 0.343 0.245 0.134
Note: Dependent variable: ratio of foreign resident population to the total population of Japanese nationals (F2J) t, annual percentage change; t statistics
are in parentheses; *p<0.05, **p<0.01, ***p<0.001 (two-tailed).
Sources: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan (2020); Ministry of Justice, Japan (2020); OECD (2020); Statistics Bureau of Japan (2000 – 2020).

Existing studies generally support the hypothesis that as prior is associated with an increase in the ratio of foreign

aging population increases, the number of immigrants resident population to the total population of Japanese
increases. However, it is not clear how different dimensions nationals (F2J). This finding indicates that the demographic
of population composition affect immigration. Therefore, change results in an increasing number of retirees, a
this study examined how demographic change measured declining number of workers, and an increasing number
by population by age group is related to immigration in of immigrants. Over the next 30 years, the share of the
Japan for the period 1975 – 2019. population aged 65+ is expected to increase. Consequently,
Several results from this study merit discussion. First, the number of foreign residents is also expected to increase.
the results from the OLS analysis indicate that an increase Third, immigration can be considered to be preventing
in the ratio of the population aged 60 – 64 to the total declines in the working age population. However, many
population of 1 year prior is associated with a decrease Asian countries from where Japan’s foreign workers originate

in the ratio of foreign resident population to the total are also likely to face the shortage of the future supply labor
population of Japanese nationals (F2J). This age group is in due to reductions in fertility. For example, in 2020, according
the transition period from the workforce into retirement. to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan (Asahi
The first possible for the negative relationship result is that Shimbun, 2021), over 60% of foreign workers in Japan were
a growing number of people aged 60 – 64 is still working. from China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Yet, the total
The labor force participation rate of people aged 60 – 64 fertility rate decreased from 3.57 in 1975 to 1.28 in 2020 for
increased from 60.6% in 2012 to 75.3 in 2022 (Statistics China, from 5.64 in 1975 to 1.95 in 2020 for Vietnam, and
Bureau of Japan, 2023b). The second possible reason is that from 5.60 in 1975 to 2.77 in 2020 for the Philippines (United
this particular age group has a higher level of productivity. Nations, 2022b). Concerns have already been raised about
A report from the WHO Commission on Macroeconomics the labor force shortages in China (Wu, 2016), and there
and Health (2002) found that older workers have cumulated may also have some concerns about the labor force shortage
more work experience, which increases their productivity. in Vietnam in the coming decades (Bartels, 2023). As the
Viviani et al. (2021) compared productivity in older versus population is expected to grow older in Japan in the future
younger workers and found that older workers performed (United Nations, 2022b), it will create new challenges for
better than younger workers, but had more absenteeism. policymakers. Therefore, Japan has to identify other ways
These reasons could partly account for why this study to increase labor force participation. The results from this
found that an increase in the population aged 60 – 64 of study indicate that in Japan, an increase in the total fertility

1 year prior is associated with a decrease in the number rate is associated with a decrease in the foreign resident
of foreign residents. Further studies are needed to better population. Thus, increasing Japan’s total fertility rate is still
understand this negative relationship. important to improve the labor market.
Second, the results show that an increase in the ratio Finally, this study has limitations. The number of registered
of population aged 65+ to the total population of 1 year foreign residents was used to measure immigrants, because

Volume 9 Issue 1 (2023) 25 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.407