Page 26 - IJPS-9-1

International Journal of
Population Studies Population aging and immigration in Japan

Kingsley Davis (Davis, 1945; Kirk, 1996; Landry, 1987). prospect for economic growth (Australian Government
The demographic transition theory is based on historical Productivity Commission, 2006).
population trends that suggest a country’s total population Several European countries are also experiencing
growth rate cycles through five stages and describes why population aging. In many industrialized countries, the
the population is aging in the country. Demographic demographic change results in an increasing number of
transition theories have arisen in response to the retirees, a declining number of workers, and an increasing
emergence of very low fertility in a collection of European number of immigrants (Bijak et al., 2007; Denton & Spencer,
and East Asian countries (Cooke et al., 2019). The first 2015; Keely, 2008; Lutz et al., 2019; United Nations, 2020;
stage of the demographic transition was the pre-industrial
stage. During this stage, both mortality and fertility rates 2022). Bijak et al. (2008) demonstrated that reasonable
levels of immigration and increases in the fertility rate and
were high. In stage two, decline in mortality rates began labor force participation helped to meet the socioeconomic
while fertility rates were high. In stage three, fertility rates challenges posed by population aging. They additionally
decreased. In stage four, both mortality and fertility rates
were low. Finally, population aging occurs. noted that the long-term consequences of population
aging should be addressed by policy-makers in European
The second demographic theory (SDT) was presented countries. Recently, Ghio et al. (2022) demonstrated that
by Lesthaeghe & van de Kaa (1986), which is a description despite the shrinking of the working age population in
of post-baby boom family and fertility patterns in Western most EU countries, the positive net migration was able
Europe (Zaidi & Morgan, 2017). SDT began in Europe to counterbalance the deficit due to cohort turnover
after World War II, and SDT empirically observed decline and generate an increase in the working age population
in fertility to below the replacement level of fertility in for the period 2015 – 2019. This effect was particularly
European countries. The replacement level of fertility is pronounced in urban area.
the number of children that a woman must have to replace
themselves in a generation, which ranges 2.1 – 2.4 (Siegel & Further, Jakovljevic et al. (2018) forecasted the net
Swanson, 2004). SDT addresses the changes in the patterns number of migrants in EU 28 and its east and south
of reproductive behavior when women benefited from new near neighborhood for the period 2020 – 2050. They
birth control techniques. These changes and the increased demonstrated that in EU 28, the net number of migrants
role of women in society and the workforce affected the will increase from –91,000 in 1950 to 394,000 in 2050. In
demographic profile in an area in industrialized countries contrast, in the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) East
resulting in below the replacement level of fertility. The countries, it will decrease from 3000 in 1950 to –30,000
demographic transition has brought momentous changes, in 2050; and in the ENP South countries, the change will
reshaping the demographic life cycles of individuals be from –72,000 in 1950 to –138,000 in 2050. At the same
and restructuring populations (Lee, 2003). In Japan, time, they observed that EU region currently experiences
as a destination country, immigration has become an most advanced stage of demographic aging. In ENP East
important feature for the labor force due to the decreasing region, the fertility has declined since late 1980s while
fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. in ENP South, population is younger compared to their
northern counterparts.
1.2.2. Population aging and immigration
1.2.3. Immigration and non-demographic factors
This section reviews the few studies related to this
research, as empirical analyses of the relationship between In addition to demographic factors, other factors also
population composition by age group and immigration affect immigration. Economic development is associated
in Japan applying econometric methods are lacking. with immigration (Borjas, 1994; Massey & Zenteno,
Historically, Western countries, such as Australia, Canada, 1999; Sanderson & Kentor, 2009). Morley (2006) analyzed
New Zealand, and the United States, have hosted a large causality between immigration and economic growth
number of immigrants, and more empirical analyses of using data for Australia, Canada, and the United States
immigration exist for those countries than for Japan. for the period 1930 – 2002. The author found a long-run
Hatton & Williamson (1998) applied econometric methods causal relationship from economic growth to immigration
to a series of empirical studies of immigration of Europeans but not the reverse. Immigration is conditioned by levels
to Australia and the United States. They observed that of unemployment and wages in the Organization for
immigration had a profound effect on the demographic Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
and economic conditions in the receiving countries. In countries (Damette & Fromentin, 2013). Islam (2007)
Australia, immigration is significant in the context of an found in Canada that host country’s unemployment
aging population as a source of future labor supply and a has a negative impact on immigration but found no

Volume 9 Issue 1 (2023) 20 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.407