Page 7 - IJPS-9-1

International Journal of

Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE
Local population changes as a spatial varying

multiscale process: The Italian case

3
2
1
Federico Benassi *, Massimo Mucciardi , and Gerardo Gallo
1 Department of Political Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, Via Leopoldo Rodinò 22, Naples,
Italy
2 Department of Cognitive Science, Education and Cultural Studies, University of Messina, Via
Bivona Bernardi 3, Messina, Italy
3 Department for Statistical Production, Directorate of Population Statistics, Social Surveys and
Permanent Population Census, Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), P.zza Guglielmo
Marconi 26/C, Rome, Italy

Abstract

The population dynamics in Italy show a strong spatial heterogeneity within a
framework of persistent demographic territorial disparities. From a local point
of view, it is necessary to understand what demographic determinants govern
this process. In the paper, we model the population change according to a local
(i.e., spatial varying coefficients) multiscale approach. To this aim, local demographic
growth rates of each Italian municipality for the period 2011 – 2019 were estimated
and modeled by means of a classic a-spatial global model (i.e., ordinary least-square),
and a multiscale geographically weighted regression. The multiscale dimensions of
local population changes are therefore analyzed by means of three sub-dimensions:
*Corresponding author: Level of influence, scalability, and specificity. The results show that the determinants
Federico Benassi
(federico.benassi@unina.it) of local population changes are not spatially constant and that they vary in their
effect at different geographical scales.
Citation: Benassi, F., Mucciardi, M.,
& Gallo, G. (2023). Local population
changes as a spatial varying
multiscale process: The Italian Keywords: Spatial demography; Local approach; Spatial varying coefficients; Multiscale
case. International Journal of geographically weighted regression model; Italy
Population Studies, 9(1):1-10.
https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.393
Received: October 13, 2023
Accepted: February 8, 2023 1. Introduction
Published Online: February 27, In Italy, demographic changes present a strong spatial heterogeneity (Billari & Tomassini,
2023 2021). Fertility and mortality, on the one hand, are affected by local and global spatial
Copyright: © 2023 Author(s). autocorrelation (Salvati et al., 2020) and by spatial diffusion (Benassi & Carella, 2022;
This is an Open Access article Vitali & Billari, 2017). On the other hand, migrations – internal and international – are
distributed under the terms of the affected by “classic” spatial variations, like the north–south divide, urban–rural divide,
Creative Commons Attribution
License, permitting distribution, and new ones (for example the ones related to inner areas) (Benassi et al., 2019; Bonifazi
and reproduction in any medium, et al., 2021; Lamonica & Zagaglia, 2013; Strozza et al., 2016). The result of these
provided the original work is
properly cited. processes is a dual demographic spatial landscape in which some spatial contexts grow,
and some others shrink, with several (negative) effects on territorial cohesion and social
Publisher’s Note: AccScience
Publishing remains neutral with sustainability (Reynaud et al., 2020).
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional It is crucial to understand demographic components that act as drivers of that process
affiliations. considering spatial dependence and scale heterogeneity. Although studies that approach

Volume 9 Issue 1 (2023) 1 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.393