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Microbes & Immunity Statistical modeling of COVID-19 trends

Table 1. Overview of key datasets
Data source Data description Link
WHO Daily COVID-19 case and death data reported to the WHO, https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/data?n=c
updated weekly and incorporating corrections to historical
records based on newly received information
United The HDI measures key dimensions of human development, https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/human-development-index#/
Nations such as a long and healthy life, access to education, and a indices/HDI
Development decent standard of living
Programme
CDC COVID-19 vaccination trends in the US at both national and https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/
jurisdictional levels, regularly updated to reflect changes over
time
Archived weekly data on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/
US, providing state-level trends and historical records Weekly-United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-pwn4-m3yp/
about_data
County-level data on COVID-19 vaccinations in the US, https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/
including detailed trends and demographic breakdowns COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-Stat8×kx-amqh/about_
data
World Bank GDP per capita (in current US$), representing the monetary https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
value of all final goods and services produced per person in a
given year
The Gini index measures the distribution of income across a https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI
population, representing inequality
Current health expenditure per capita (in current US$) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.PC.CD
represents the average national spending on healthcare per
individual
Hospital beds per 1,000 people, indicating the availability of https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.BEDS.ZS
healthcare infrastructure
Population density, measured as the number of people per km 2 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.DNST
of land area, reflects how concentrated a population is within a
specific area
Bureau of GDP and personal income by state for the first quarter of 2024, https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state
Economic providing insights into regional economic performance
Analysis
US Census Historical population density data (1910 – 2020) provides https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/
Bureau population density trends over the past century density-data-text.html
State population totals and components of change from 2020 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/
to 2023, highlighting trends in population growth, decline, and popest/2020s-state-total.html
migration patterns
Kaiser Family Healthcare expenditures per capita by state of residence, https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/
Foundation providing detailed insights into state-level spending on health-spending-per-capita/?currentTimeframe=
healthcare 0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22L
ocation%22%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D
Number of hospital beds per 1,000 people by ownership type, https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/
providing insights into the distribution and availability of beds-by-ownership/?currentTimeframe=
healthcare resources 0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22L
ocation%22%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D
Abbreviations: GDP: Gross domestic product; HDI: Human development index; US: United states; WHO: World health organization.

(vi) E (x ε ) = 0 for all s < t, ensuring that the noise terms (ii) Integrated: Represents the differencing of observations
s t
are uncorrelated with past values of the series. 10 required to achieve stationarity in the time series. 9
The ARIMA model consists of three main components: (iii) Moving average: Models the relationship between a
(i) Autoregressive: Captures the relationship between a current observation and the residual errors from an
current observation and its past (lagged) values. 9 MA model applied to past (lagged) observations. 9

Volume 2 Issue 3 (2025) 110 doi: 10.36922/MI025040007