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Salako, et al.

V. paradoxa but also its health. Negative indices The restoration of this threatened yet important tree
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signify water stress, which could be injurious to seed species demands urgent attention from all stakeholders,
germination. This study’s findings highlight NDWI/ including the government, indigenous people, and
MNDWI as crucial vegetation indices for detecting scientists. Future efforts will involve collaboration
water stress in the species. The model predicted a with experts in agroforestry, genetics, and relevant
positive response begins at a 0.2 water index gradient. governmental agencies to initiate experimental trials
Although this study did not project species distribution using seeds collected from the high-priority locations
and seed priority index under future scenarios, the identified in this study. Such trials will not only help to
threshold information on precipitation and MNDWI validate this work and reveal areas for improvement, but
(Table 4) can guide conservation strategies and serve as could also significantly support long-term conservation
baseline values of the species’ water requirements under measures aimed at preserving and restoring this tree
changing climatic conditions. species.
Despite occurrence data were obtained from both
an online database (GBIF) and field surveys, data gaps Acknowledgments
remain in certain parts of the study areas, especially in
the Federal Capital Territory and northern Niger state We express our gratitude to the Senckenberg Museum
(e.g., Mariga and Kontagora). Therefore, the model’s of Natural History Gorlitz for providing the opportunity
predictions of low habitat suitability and low seed for us to use their office facilities and support for staff
location priority index in these areas could not be fully members working on an externally funded project.
validated. Nonetheless, an examination of the spatial
distribution of both the GNDVI and MNDWI showed Funding
low greenness and potential water stress in these
regions, which may explain the model’s low suitability This work was funded by the Nigerian Federal
predictions. It should be emphasized, however, that the Government TETFUND (Grant ID: KWASU I B R/C
vegetation indices and climate variables used in this RlT/270921 t/0 L 1 ff ETF2020/00 09).
study represent conditions at the landscape level and are
not exclusive to V. paradoxa; they may also reflect the Conflict of interest
presence and influence of other plant species in the same
locations. In addition, seed viability in this study was The authors declare no conflict of interest in any form.
60
inferred solely from vegetation phenology parameters,
and therefore, the findings should be interpreted within Author contributions
these limitations.

5. Conclusion Conceptualization: Gabriel Salako, Oluwasogo Olalubi,
Henry Sawyerr

This study employed remotely sensed vegetation and Formal analysis: Gabriel Salako, Henry Sawyerr,
climate data in combination with machine learning Oluwasogo Olalubi
algorithms to identify not only suitable habitats for Investigation: Abdulrasheed Adio, Moses Adetumbi
V. paradoxa, but also to locate potential viable and Methodology: Gabriel Salako, Oluwasogo Olalubi,
productive sites for seed sources – referred to as the Abdulrasheed Adio
SZPI. Out of five seed zones, three were found to be Writing – original draft: Gabriel Salako, Oluwasogo
climatically suitable and viable for seed propagation. Olalubi
The integration of vegetation index thresholds with Writing – review & editing: Gabriel Salako, Oluwasogo
habitat suitability mapping allowed for the classification Olalubi, Abel Adebayo, Andrey Zaitsev
of areas into poor/non-priority and high-priority seed
source locations. This approach provides a valuable Availability of data
framework for guiding the collection of healthy and
viable seeds, while also offering insights into key climate R code and data are available at: https://github.com/
variables across seed zones that influence the species’ gabsalako/Vitellaria-Paradoxa
propagation and conservation – an effort aligned with Online maps available at: https://rpubs.com/gabsalak/
the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals. Shea_nut_tree

Volume 22 Issue 4 (2025) 100 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025210160