Page 17 - EER-1-1

Explora: Environment

and Resource

ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE
Impacts of mode shift on well-to-wheel

emissions from inter-capital transport in
Australia – Part I: Road and rail transport

Robin Smit * and Paul Graeme Boulter 3
1,2
1 Transport Energy/Emission Research (TER), Launceston, Tasmania, Australia
2 Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney,
Australia
3 EMM Consulting, St. Leonards, New South Wales, Australia

Abstract
Achieving mode shift in the transport sector will help Australia to meet its target for
net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, although robust data on its effectiveness
have previously been limited. This analysis provides valuable new information
on mode shift impacts on emissions in Australia and demonstrates some recently
developed assessment tools. The analysis considers the potential of a shift from road
Part II of this paper can be accessed to rail to reduce well-to-wheel (WTW) emissions (as CO -equivalents, CO -e) in 2019,
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at doi: 10.36922/eer.3470 2030, and 2050, specifically for a case study involving the transport of passengers and
*Corresponding author: freight between Brisbane and Melbourne. The analysis provides emission intensities
Robin Smit (EIs) in grams per passenger-km (g/pkm) and grams per tonne-km (g/tkm), as well as
(robin.smit@transport-e-research.com) annualized emissions, and considers the variability and uncertainty in the estimates
Citation: Smit R, Boulter PG. using a probabilistic approach. The transfer of passengers and freight from road to
Impacts of mode shift on well-to- rail has the potential to significantly reduce emissions. Electric rail delivers the largest
wheel emissions from inter-capital
transport in Australia – Part I: Road and least uncertain emission reductions. For passenger transport, the EI of electric
and rail transport. Explora Environ rail (12 g CO -e/pkm in 2030; 6.5 g CO -e/pkm in 2050) is considerably lower than
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Resour. 2024;1(1):3470. that of road transport (143.2 g CO -e/pkm in 2030; 58.9 g CO -e/pkm in 2050), and
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doi: 10.36922/eer.3470 the uncertainty is lower. For freight transport, the EI of electric rail (8.6 g CO -e/tkm
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Received: April 23, 2024 in 2030; 5.0 CO -e/tkm in 2050) is also substantially lower than that for road transport
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Accepted: June 27, 2024 (48.3 g CO -e/tkm in 2030; 29.5 g CO -e/tkm in 2050). The EI for diesel rail freight
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(27.0 g CO -e/tkm in 2030; 26.1 g CO -e/tkm in 2050) is around half of the value for
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Published Online: July 26, 2024 road transport in 2030, but road transport becomes more competitive by 2050. The
Copyright: © 2024 Author(s). complete transfer of passengers between Brisbane and Melbourne from road to
This is an Open-Access article electric rail would reduce annual WTW emissions for passenger transport by 75 –
distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution 90%, depending on the year. The complete transfer of freight from road to diesel
License, permitting distribution, rail would reduce annual emissions by 45% in 2019 and 2030 and by 10% in 2050.
and reproduction in any medium, The study and tools will help researchers, policymakers, transport/land-use planners,
provided the original work is
properly cited. and network operators to quantify, design, and implement mode shift measures to
reduce emissions.
Publisher’s Note: AccScience
Publishing remains neutral with
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional Keywords: Emissions; Mode; Shift; Passenger; Freight; Road; Rail; Well-to-wheel
affiliations.

Volume 1 Issue 1 (2024) 1 doi: 10.36922/eer.3470