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Explora: Environment
and Resource WTW emissions of road and rail transport

1. Introduction An established paradigm for reducing transport
emissions is “avoid – shift – improve.” In this paradigm,
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Transport is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) “avoid” interventions reduce the number and/or
emissions in Australia. A stepwise breakdown of direct length of trips, “shift” interventions promote a transfer
domestic emissions in 2018 – 2019, before the coronavirus to low-carbon modes, and “improve” interventions
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disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, is shown in Figure 1. reduce emissions through technology. The Australian
The transport sector was responsible for 100 Mt of carbon Government and the states are currently focusing
dioxide equivalents (CO -e), or 18% of gross emissions. strongly on the “improve” pathway, and in particular
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Within the sector the largest source by far was road transport the electrification of road transport and the transition
(85%), itself dominated by cars and light commercial of the electricity grid to renewables . A PV fleet that is
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vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEVs). Civil dominated by smaller and lighter EVs (contrary to the
aviation (8%), railways (4%), and marine navigation current trend) may bring Australia close to the net-
(2%) were minor contributors to domestic transport zero target. Green H could also be deployed where
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emissions. Emissions from international transport were, electrification faces barriers, although this is likely to be
by convention, reported separately. For example, data from more relevant to non-road modes.
the International Civil Aviation Organization indicate that
emissions from international flights to and from Australia Modeling of the emissions impacts of multi-transport
in 2019 were approximately 3 times higher than emissions mode shift has, by its nature, a wide scope and requires the
from domestic flights. 2 consideration of a broad range of inputs and information.
Moreover, it is essential that local conditions are adequately
In the same year, Australia’s domestic passenger travel considered and reflected in the estimates. This analysis
was 443 billion passenger-km (pkm). The majority of this did not identify any recent studies of the effects of mode
travel was by road (79%, including a small contribution shift on GHG emissions in Australia, and older studies
from ferries), with 4% by rail and 17% by air. Domestic tended to use data from overseas. In the light of increasing
freight activity was 785 billion tonne-km (tkm). In this case, demand for passenger travel and freight, avoiding travel
the majority was by road (28%) and rail (56%), with sea and transport through planning, and shifting activity from
(coastal shipping, 15%) making up most of the remainder. modes with a high emission intensity to modes with a low
Freight transport by air was <0.05% of the total. 3 emission intensity, will remain important, and research
Emissions from the transport sector have trended is needed to accurately quantify their impacts using
upward with time, in line with growth in population and Australian data.
the economy. The Australian Government notes that, This analysis considered the potential of mode shift –
without intervention, transport will be the largest emission specifically from road to rail – to reduce emissions from
source by 2030. For road transport, increasing light vehicle the transport of passengers and freight between two
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activity, coupled with a trend toward heavier cars and sport- Australian state capital cities: Brisbane and Melbourne.
utility vehicles (SUVs), is likely to offset fuel economy The analysis used potential future scenarios to examine
improvements and technology switching for the foreseeable and highlight the potential benefits of mode shift but did
future, although light vehicle emissions will start to decline not consider the mechanisms by which the outcomes
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as electric vehicle (EV) uptake increases. Emissions from could be achieved. In practice, various levers are available
trucks and buses will also increase, although at a slower rate for incentivizing mode shift, such as economic measures,
than activity due to switching to battery EVs (BEVs) and improved integration, and investment in infrastructure.
fuel cell electric hydrogen (H ) vehicles, as well as general Some large infrastructure projects in Australia will
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efficiency improvements. For domestic freight, activity and support an increased use of rail, including Sydney Metro,
emissions are projected to be relatively stable by 2035. 4 Melbourne Metro Tunnel and Brisbane Cross River Rail
Australia has committed to reducing its GHG emissions for passengers, and Brisbane-Melbourne Inland Rail for
by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, and achieving net-zero freight. For passenger transport, there are no national
emissions by 2050. Reducing transport emissions is a targets for inter-mode shift, although some states and cities
crucial, but challenging, element of the net-zero strategy. have goals within road transport, such as increases in the
For example, a recent study estimated that total well-to- share of active and/or public transport. There will also be
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wheel (WTW) emissions from Australian road transport passive changes to the transport system; for example, the
would only be reduced by 35 – 45% between 2019 and 2050
due to a projected growth in travel activity, a sustained 1 See for instance, https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure-
increase in the sales of large passenger vehicles (PV) (SUVs, transport-vehicles/transport-and-infrastructure-net-zero-
utes), and a delayed penetration of EVs in trucking. 5 roadmap-and-action-plan

Volume 1 Issue 1 (2024) 2 doi: 10.36922/eer.3470