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Explora: Environment

and Resource

ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE
Impacts of mode shift on well-to-wheel

emissions from inter-capital transport in
Australia – Part II: Sea and air transport

1,2
Robin Smit * and Paul Graeme Boulter 3
1 Transport Energy/Emission Research, Launceston, TAS, Australia
2 Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney,
Australia
3 EMM Consulting, St. Leonards, New South Wales, Australia

Abstract
Achieving a mode shift in the transport sector will be important in helping Australia
to meet its target for net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. However,
robust data for Australian transport have previously been unavailable or limited.
This paper extends a recent analysis of mode shift impacts for land surface transport
(Part I) to include sea transport (freight only) and air transport (passengers and freight)
and demonstrates recently developed assessment tools. The analysis considers the
potential of inter-mode shifts to reduce well-to-wheel/wake (WTW) emissions (as
CO -equivalents, CO -e) in 2019, 2030, and 2050, specifically for the transport of
2
2
either passengers or freight between Brisbane and Melbourne as a case study. The
Part I of this paper can be accessed analysis provides emission intensities in grams per passenger-km (g/pkm) and grams
at doi: 10.36922/eer.3471
*Corresponding author: per tonne-km (g/tkm), as well as annualized values, and considers the variability and
Robin Smit uncertainty in the estimates using a probabilistic approach. For sea freight transport,
(robin.smit@transport-e-research.com) the average emission intensities are 9 – 16 g CO -e/tkm for container ships and 4 –
2
Citation: Smit R, Boulter PG. 8 g CO -e/tkm for bulk carriers, depending on the year. For air passenger transport,
2
Impacts of mode shift on well-to- excluding non-CO climate effects, the emission intensity decreases from 166 g
2
wheel emissions from inter-capital CO -e/pkm in 2019 – 89 g CO -e/pkm in 2050. Air transport performs particularly
transport in Australia – Part II: Sea 2 2
and air transport. Explora Environ poorly for freight; the emission intensity was 1,345 g CO -e/tkm in 2019, decreasing
2
Resour. 2024;1(1):3471. to 719 g CO -e/tkm in 2050. The analysis shows that a transfer of passengers from air
2
doi: 10.36922/eer.3471 or road to electric rail, and a transfer of freight from road to sea or electric rail, have
Received: April 23, 2024 the potential to significantly reduce WTW emissions. For example, for passenger
Accepted: June 27, 2024 transport between Brisbane and Melbourne, the complete transfer of travel from air
Published Online: July 26, 2024 to electric rail would reduce annual emissions (including non-CO effects) by around
2
Copyright: © 2024 Author(s). 95% in both 2030 and 2050. A complete transfer of freight from road to sea would
This is an Open-Access article reduce emissions by around 60 – 80%. In 2050, the complete transfer of freight to
distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution electric rail from road, diesel rail, and air transport would reduce WTW emissions
License, permitting distribution, between the cities by 83%, 81%, and 99.6%, respectively. The study provides valuable
and reproduction in any medium, new information on mode shift and GHG emissions across all modes. As such, it helps
provided the original work is
properly cited. researchers, policy-makers, transport/land-use planners, and network operators to
quantify, design, and implement mode shift measures to reduce emissions.
Publisher’s Note: AccScience
Publishing remains neutral with
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional Keywords: Transport; Emissions; Mode; Shift; Passenger; Freight; Air, Sea
affiliations.

Volume 1 Issue 1 (2024) 1 doi: 10.36922/eer.3471