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Explora: Environment
and Resource WTW emissions of road and rail transport

Figure 8. Time-series plots of normalized mean well-to-wheel emission intensity. The shading shows the plausible range (99.7% confidence interval).

Table 7. Annualized well‑to‑wheel emissions for land‑based transport (passengers and freight) for the Brisbane–Melbourne
route, with the lower and upper confidence limit defining the plausible range
Transport mode Units WTW GHG emissions
Year Mean Median 99.7% LCL 99.7% UCL
Passenger transport
Road kt CO -e/year 2019 855.2 854.2 722.3 1,006.7
2
2030 1,004.5 1,002.7 846.9 1,180.4
2050 522.7 522.0 456.5 601.5
Rail (electric) kt CO -e/year 2019 225.6 223.5 144.5 335.4
2
2030 85.0 84.2 54.5 124.9
2050 58.0 57.5 36.9 85.7
Freight transport
Road kt CO -e/year 2019 328.1 327.2 281.1 381.6
2
2030 323.5 322.7 277.7 380.5
2050 325.0 324.3 263.4 398.1
Rail (diesel) kt CO -e/year 2019 181.7 181.5 151.8 214.6
2
2030 181.7 181.5 151.8 214.6
2050 289.5 289.2 242.6 340.8
Rail (electric) kt CO -e/year 2019 173.6 172.2 131.8 227.0
2
2030 57.9 57.5 44.3 75.8
2050 55.3 54.8 42.4 71.5
Abbreviations: GHG: Greenhouse gas; LCL: Lower confidence limit; UCL: Upper confidence limit; WTW: Well-to-wheel; kt: Kilotonne.

The results demonstrated that the complete transfer about 45% in 2019 and 2030, and 11% in 2050, equating to
of passengers between Brisbane and Melbourne from absolute reductions of around 145 kilotonne in 2019 and
road to electric rail would reduce WTW emissions for 2030, and 35 kilotonne in 2050. This was a more realistic
passenger transport by about 75 – 90%, depending on scenario than that for passenger transport, as it used data
the year. Based on the hypothetical situation in which the from the Inland Rail project.
demand for passenger travel on the route was equivalent Larger reductions in emissions (e.g., 80 – 85% in
to that for air travel, annual emissions would be reduced 2030 and 2050) could be achieved using electric rail
by 630 kilotonne in 2019, 920 kilotonne in 2030, and for freight, although (as noted earlier) electrification
465 kilotonne in 2050. Similarly, the complete transfer of of the Inland Freight line is not being implemented at
freight from road to diesel rail would reduce emissions by this stage. Nevertheless, mode shift from road to rail has

Volume 1 Issue 1 (2024) 13 doi: 10.36922/eer.3470