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Using panel data to examine pregnancy attitudes over time

Pasta, 2010), and how well their intentions to have children within a specified time period
are met (Miller, Rodgers, and Pasta, 2010; Heaton, Jacobson, and Holland, 1999; White
and McQuilan, 2006). However, only a handful of studies have used longitudinal data to
examine other fertility and family planning behaviors (Jones, Tapales, Lindberg et al,
2015). Instead, many cross-sectional studies assume that these attitudes are fairly constant
over time. Even rarer are studies which use prospective longitudinal data to assess changes
and continuity in short-term pregnancy attitudes over time.
Based on cross-sectional studies, we know that at any given point in time around five
percent of U.S. women reported that they are trying to get pregnant (Jones, Mosher, and
Daniels, 2012; McQuilan, Greil, and Shreffler, 2011). These women are often married,
non-White, and are less likely to have children than women who are not trying to get
pregnant (McQuilan, Greil, and Shreffler, 2011). Although many studies have noted that a
dichotomous assessment of trying versus not trying does not describe the variety of preg-
nancy intentions (McQuilan, Greil, and Shreffler, 2011; Morgan, 1982; Santelli, Rochat,
Hatfield-Timajchy et al, 2003), there is little research examining which groups of women
are less interested in avoiding pregnancy, whether and how these attitudes change over
time and for whom they do so. Interestingly, many women who are not actively trying to
become pregnant are also not actively trying to avoid it. One study found that a fifth of
women who were not trying to become pregnant reported that it was only a little or not at
all important to avoid pregnancy(Frost, Singh, and Finer, 2007). Similarly, McQuillan’s
(McQuilan, Greil, and Shreffler, 2011) study found that 23 percent of women were “okay
either way” when asked about becoming pregnant.
There are few longitudinal studies that have examined changes in fertility intentions
over time. However, some studies have used the National Survey of Families and House-
holds (NSFH) to analyze change and stability in the desire to have children over a rela-
tively long time period of six-years. Among a subsample of 1,440 respondents who had no
prior births and were in their first marriage or never married at baseline, the majority of
women and men were stable in their fertility intentions, though almost one in five reported
a change in intentions between the first and second waves (Heaton, Jacobson, and Holland,
1999). A second study, restricted to those who wanted to have (more) children at baseline,
also found that the majority of individuals were consistent in their fertility intentions (in-
cluding following through with their wave 1 intention to have children by wave 2), but
they also found that 15 percent transitioned to no longer intending to have children, and
six percent became unsure (White and McQuilan, 2006). However, neither of these studies
addressed the changes in women’s decisions to actively try to become pregnant or avoid
pregnancy in the short term.
Short-term fertility attitudes have been studied longitudinally using The Relationship
Dynamics and Social Life (RDSL) survey, which collected weekly data from 1,003 wom-
en aged 18–19 at baseline and residing in a single Michigan county in 2008 and 2009. The
data show that that while nine in ten of these women were strongly motivated to avoid
pregnancy at each point in time, only seven in ten did so consistently over the two and a
half year study period (Moreau, Hall, Trussell, et al, 2013). These attitudes can influence
contraceptive use: women who place little or no importance on avoiding pregnancy use
less effective methods and use methods inconsistently (Frost, Singh, and Finer, 2007; Mo-
reau, Hall, Trussell et al, 2013). This study is one of the few examining short-term changes
in pregnancy attitudes, but is unfortunately limited to only young women and is not na-
tionally representative.
Given the relatively small number of studies that have used longitudinal data to ex-
amine family planning behaviors, several gaps remain. The focus on young women in
most studies likely reflects the recognition that early adulthood is a period of change

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