Page 135 - IJPS-11-5

International Journal of
Population Studies Regional disparities and fertility rates

Table 6. Regression results of time series models, 2000 – 2019
Parameter Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5
Intercept 1.0576*** 7.4712*** 3.3723*** 4.8166** 2.1635***
Growth rate 0.0303** −0.0069 # 0.0025 # −0.0029 # −0.0030 #
Gini - −14.0627*** - −9.1997** -
Theil - - −5.8202*** - −3.7763***
Fertility rate_1 - - - 0.3917* 0.3752**
R 2 0.2610 0.6933 0.6831 0.6406 0.6976
DW statistics 0.8649 1.0282 0.9256 - -
Durbin h - - - 2.1841** 1.1868#
Time period (years) 19 19 19 19 19
Notes: The values represent the coefficients; Significance levels: *p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01, p>0.05.
#
Abbreviation: DW: Durbin–Watson.
coefficients statistically significant at the p<0.01 level. regional disparities in GRDP also increased. Strong
Although the precise mechanism through which regional negative correlations between regional disparities and
inequality affects fertility cannot be fully identified from fertility rates were observed, with both Gini and Theil
these results, it can be inferred that widening disparities coefficients showing statistical significance, suggesting
may drive population shifts toward economically dominant that regional economic imbalances are associated with a
areas (Rees et al., 2012), resulting in increased population decline in fertility rates.
density and intensified competition, which may discourage Second, the spatial panel model analysis revealed that
childbearing (Firebaugh, 1982; Ko et al., 2020; Lutz when controlling for other factors, the net effect of the
et al., 2006). In summary, the findings address Research regional economic level, represented by GRDP, on fertility
Question 2, indicating that widening regional disparities was positive and statistically significant at the p<0.01 level.
have a significant negative effect on fertility rates, holding This result was consistent across all four models applied,
other conditions constant. excluding the SDM, which is necessary for estimating
4. Conclusion spatial diffusion effects. This addresses research question 1,
which states that “Under constant conditions, an increase
Korea’s low fertility problem, exacerbated by widening in income level due to economic growth has a positive
regional disparities, represents a critical demographic impact on fertility.”
challenge that accelerates both population and regional Third, the time-series analysis showed that the expansion
decline. Despite the implementation of various policies by of regional disparities negatively impacts fertility. When
the central and local governments to increase the fertility both regional disparities and economic growth were
rates, the decline persists. To effectively address this issue, a simultaneously controlled, the effect of economic growth
comprehensive national-level discussion on solving the low on fertility was not statistically significant, whereas regional
fertility problem, integrated with alternative approaches at disparities had a statistically significant negative effect on
the regional level, is necessary.
fertility. This result answers research question 2, which
This study formulated two research questions regarding posits that “Under constant conditions, the widening of
the relationships between economic growth, regional regional disparities due to economic growth negatively
economic disparities, and fertility rates. Using data on the affects fertility.”
total fertility rates from 2000 to 2020 across 16 metropolitan The key policy implications based on the main findings
regions in Korea, bivariate models, spatial panel models, and of this study are as follows. Efforts to mitigate regional
time-series models were applied to address these research economic disparities are essential for addressing fertility
questions. The main findings of this study are as follows. decline and ensuring balanced national development.
First, the bivariate analysis confirmed that the total Policies should focus on reducing economic inequalities
fertility rate showed an overall declining trend over the across regions by promoting balanced growth, improving
past 20 years, while regional disparities in fertility rates resource distribution, and fostering local economic
widened. During the same period, quantitative economic development. Large-scale infrastructure projects, such
growth exhibited a continuous upward trend, while as transportation and social overhead capital (SOC)

Volume 11 Issue 5 (2025) 129 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.8157