Page 97 - IJPS-3-1
P. 97
Lagergen M, Kurube N and Saito Y
https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/43.5.S153
de La Maisonneuve C and Martins JO (2013). Public spending on health and long-term care:
A new set of projections. OECD Economic Policy Papers No. 06. Paris, France: OECD
Publishing.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k44t7jwwr9x-en
Sakai S, Sato J, Nakazawa M (2015). Kaigosouhiyo no choukisuikei (Japanese) [Total long-term
estimates of LTC costs]. KIER Discussion Paper Series, No. 1504. Kyoto, Japan: Kyoto
University Research Institute of Economics.
Stineman MG, Xie D, Pan Q, et al. (2012). All-cause 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality in elderly
people according to activities of daily living stage. Journal of the American Geriatrics
Society, 60(3): 485–492.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2011.03867.x
Swedish Agency for Health and Care Services Analysis (2015). Hemtjänst, vård- och
omsorgsboende eller mitt emellan? (Swedish) [Home help, institutional care or something
in between?] Report 2015:8. Stockholm, Sweden: Swedish Agency for Health and Care
Services Analysis.
Ueda J (2012). Dougakuteki kontororu ka no zaiseisesaku (Japanese) [Financial policy under
dynamic control]. Tokyo, Japan: Iwanami Shoten.
Ueda J, Horiuchi Y, and Tsutsui T (2011). Iryo kaigohiyo no choukisuikei to shorai no rodo
jyuyo: 2008 nendo no kokumin iryohi tou wo fumaeta suikei (Japanese) [Long-term
estimates of the health and long-term care costs and demand of labour ]. KIER Discussion
Paper Series No. 1017. Kyoto, Japan: Kyoto University Research Institute of Economics.
Zeng Y, Gu D, and Land KC (2004). A new method for correcting under-estimation of disabled
life expectancy and application to Chinese oldest-old. Demography, 41(2): 335–361.
https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2004.0018
Zhang Z, Xie D, Kurichi JE, et al. (2012). Mortality predictive indexes for the community-
dwelling elderly US population. Journal of General Internal Medicine, 27(8): 901–910.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-012-2027-3
Appendix: Supplementary Information
Table A1. Regression coefficients used in the life trajectory model, Japan
Parameter Estimate Stand. error P-value
intercept -1.7681 0.1531 <0.0001
Sex konb -0.6534 0.1395 <0.0001
Age group 81 years old81 -0.2364 0.1929 0.2204
Age group 84 years old84 0.2407 0.1988 0.2260
Age group 87 years old87 0.4617 0.2153 0.0320
Age group 90 years old90 0.7645 0.2667 0.0042
IADL dependency funk0_1 0.6024 0.1965 0.0022
ADL dependency funk0_2 1.5476 0.2001 <0.0001
Home-related LTC insats0_1 0.6171 0.1860 0.0009
Institution insats0_2 1.0961 0.2990 0.0002
Step 1: Dependency
Parameter Estimate Stand. error P-value Estimate Stand. error P-value
function 1 function 2
Intercept 3.3490 0.2792 <0.0001 0.7596 0.3169 0.0165
Sex konb -0.2332 0.2258 0.3017 0.1395 0.2412 0.5629
Age group 81 years old81 -0.2277 0.3006 0.4486 0.4891 0.3347 0.1440
Age group 84 years old84 -1.0981 0.3054 0.0003 -0.0440 0.3398 0.8969
Age group 87 years old87 -1.2288 0.3601 0.0006 0.3679 0.3700 0.3201
Age group 90 years old90 -1.4532 0.4990 0.0036 0.0171 0.4574 0.9702
IADL dependency funk0_1 -2.6063 0.2796 <0.0001 -0.7396 0.2591 0.0043
ADL dependency funk0_2 -4.4172 0.4642 <0.0001 -2.2926 0.3546 <0.0001
Home-related LTC insats0_1 -1.5763 0.2920 <0.0001 -0.9680 0.2703 0.0003
Institution insats0_2 -2.7196 0.7458 0.0003 -1.5390 0.6114 0.0118
International Journal of Population Studies 2017, Volume 3, Issue 1 91

