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COVID-19 and development in Africa

taking into account population density, urbanization, and GDP per capita. One possible explanation is that young people
play an important role in transmission, and therefore in the cumulative incidence for all ages, all other things being
equal. But since countries that are more developed are also more advanced in the demographic transition, they have both
a higher mean age and more reported cases of COVID-19. The strong correlation with fertility levels could be due to a
correlation with economic development, but could also be an indicator of relative isolation of the population: The more
isolated is a group, the lower will be access to family planning, the higher the fertility, and the lower the incidence of
COVID-19.
The negative correlation between incidence and case fatality could be due to the correlation with development: The
most advanced countries having more cases and fewer deaths. However, it could also be due to reporting problems:
Countries that work better detect and report more cases, and therefore, the case fatality (calculated as the ratio of deaths
to cases) appears lower.
This study did not address the issue of climate and its impact on COVID-19 transmission. Other authors found
correlations between climate, in particular temperature, and incidence of COVID-19 in Russia and in cities all over the
world (Pramanik, Chowdhury, Rana, et al., 2020; Pramanik, Udmale, Bisht, et al., 2020). The same type of analysis could
be repeated in Africa, contrasting arid with forest areas, high altitude versus low lands, cold versus warm weathers, etc.
More could be done when the epidemic would have developed for at least 2 years to assess seasonality.
This study has serious limitations, and the main limitation is the quality of data on incidence and mortality. Even in
Europe, COVID-19 cases were not fully reported in the 1 months of the epidemic, and the situation is likely to be worse
st
in Africa because of deficient health systems and lack of tracking systems. If deaths are properly recorded in Europe, they
are not in Africa because vital registration systems are deficient in many countries, with the exception of Islands such
as Mauritius and continental countries such as South Africa (Joubert, Rao, Bradshaw, et al., 2012; Garenne, Collinson,
Chodziwadziwa, et al., 2016).
The future of the epidemic is uncertain. The first few months of the epidemic were worrisome, as the R remained
0
stable above 1 for weeks and strong enough to eventually lead to a huge epidemic. The fact that it has started to decline
since mid-July may lead to less pessimism. The momentum over the next 6 months is likely to be decisive, and it is,
of course, too early to make any predictions, even at medium terms. Some authors liked to predict that the COVID-19
epidemic in Africa could be stopped by the end of April or the end of May, depending on the scenario considered, but
their predictions have proved far from reality (Zhao, Li, Liu, et al., 2020). Recent data, updated in mid-October, are again
worrisome, as R increased again in September and over-passed the 1.0 threshold by October 12.
0
5. Conclusion

The preventive measures taken vary greatly from country to country and will need to be adapted to the local context.
However, one could hope that the most advanced countries in economic, social, and health development, which are also
the most affected, will find effective solutions to eventually control the epidemic.

Disclaimer
The views and maps or definitions expressed in this article solely reflect those of the authors and do not reflect those of
the organizations the authors are affiliated to nor the publisher nor those of the editorial office and the editorial board of
the Journal.

Acknowledgments
The author thanks the United Nations Agencies for providing free access to their databases.

Funding
The author received no funding for this research

Conflicts of Interest
None declared.

Author’s Contributions
Sole author completed data analysis and wrote the paper.

12 International Journal of Population Studies | 2020, Volume 6, Issue 2