Page 29 - IJPS-7-1

International Journal of Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Application of a breakpoint model to

population growth in Türkiye

Goran Miladinov*

Independent Researcher, Republic of Macedonia

Abstract: Using data from the Macrotrends database, this paper investigated the change and
differences in population growth (POPG) as a result of the impact of its key determinants
employing a breakpoint model. A regression analysis confirms the presence of persistent
differences in the POPG in Türkiye over the period 1965 – 2021. Using the Bai-Perron
sequential breakpoint method, four statistically significant breaks at 1976, 1984, 2004, and
2013 and consequently to that five regimes were ascertained. The results clearly show a worthy
of attention difference in the mean of the crude death rate, total fertility rate, as well as net
migration rate within all of these five regimes. Furthermore, the results reveal clear evidence
that the POPG is characterized with statistically different trends compared to the period prior
and after the years of breaks and different regimes. This indicates that circumstances affecting
the mortality, migrations, and fertility in terms of the number of live births and deaths as well
as migration trends in the country before and after these indicated years in Türkiye have been
largely influenced by the different dynamics of the socioeconomic conditions and different
contexts in Turkish society.
ARTICLE INFO
Keywords: Population growth rate; Total fertility rate; Crude mortality rate; Net rate
Received: April 4, 2022
Accepted: July 13, 2022 of migration; Breakpoint model; Türkiye
Published: July 29, 2022
1. Introduction
*CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Goran Miladinov, One of the fundamental equations in demography research specifies that a population grows
Independent Researcher, or declines in size as the result of the combined effect of births, deaths, in-migration, and
Republic of Macedonia. out-migration (Weinstein and Pillai, 2016). Consequently, given demographic definitions,
miladinovg@aol.com/ demographers define the “growth” as all change in the size of a population or other
miladinovg@aim.com aggregate measures even when an absolute loss or no change occurs, or when there is
CITATION zero (negative) population growth (POPG). In general, decline in POPG can be associated
heavily with the decreasing surplus of births more than deaths. As discussed by Avdeev
Miladinov G. (2021). Application
of a breakpoint model to et al. (2011), in the recent decades, the increasing differences in POPG rates in Europe
population growth in Türkiye. are not due to natural increase but to net migration. As claimed by Bongaarts and Bulatao
International Journal of (1999), the future course in population size is determined by the decisive factors as the
Population Studies, 7(1):23-40. future trends in fertility and mortality, migration movements, as well as by the current
doi: 10.18063/ijps.v7i1.1310
population structure by age. Hence, natural growth is a result of fertility, mortality, and
Copyright: ©2021 Miladinov. momentum. The current population structure by age determines future POPG, this alluding
This is an Open-Access article to the phenomenon demographic “momentum.” In other words, population momentum
distributed under the terms signifies that a population that increases continues to increase in size further for some
of the Creative Commons
Attribution-Non-Commercial more years later than its fertility shift to replacement level fertility (Schoen, 2018). Thus,
4.0 International License according to Horiuchi and Preston (1988), the present population age structure is a result
(http://creativecommons.org/ of the population rates of fertility, mortality, and migration in the past.
licenses/by-nc/4.0/), permitting According to a more common formulation given in Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot
all non-commercial use, (2001), the term refers to the fact that a POPG does not depend only on current levels
distribution, and reproduction
in any medium, provided the of fertility and mortality but also on the age structure of the population which, in turn,
original work is properly cited. is an inheritance of the fertility and mortality in the past. In this regard, Horiuchi (1995)

International Journal of Population Studies | 2021, Volume 7, Issue 1 23