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Miladinov

Figure 1. Population growth rate, total fertility rate, crude death rate, and net migration rate in Türkiye, 1965 – 2021. Source: Author’s
design based on real data.

and an average level of life expectancy higher than 70 years. The point of view of the second demographic transition,
jointly developed by Lesthaeghe and van de Kaa in 1986 (Lesthaeghe, 2014) in opposite, does not see such a balance as
an ending. To a certain extent, the founders of the second demographic transition stated that new progressive processes
since 1970s onward may bring about sustainable sub-replacement fertility, a new partnerships and unions differently from
the marriage, relationships with no strings attached and with little interest for marriage and procreation, and an absence
of a stationary population. Furthermore, if there are no additional new migrants, the population will face declines in sizes
and would also be much older than it is foreseen by the first demographic transition. Therefore, this situation would be
as a result of the less fertility and the substantial further longevity gains. In general, as stated by Lesthaeghe (2014), the
second demographic transition points to a different new challenges in a society, which include challenges related with
more advanced aging, the integrating of immigrants, adjustment to new cultures, more risk to stability of the partnerships,
many different kinds household, and more poverty or exclusion among particular kinds of household, for instance, single
persons at different ages and single parents. During the first demographic transition, as fertility declined that there was not
an enormous pressure for emotional and financial investment in the child, that is, in that part, the parents were somehow
relieved. While during the second demographic transition, the motivation was self-realization of an adult within the role
or way of life as a parent or completely successful and fulfilled adult (Lesthaeghe, 2011).
According to Lee (2011) usually, first mortality starts to decline and continues to decline gradually and with stable
pace, and then later a fast-moving decline in fertility starts which in a longer period of time, for example, more than 2
decades, may change from a high level to a relatively lower level. The changes in these vital rates usually bring about
substantial changes in the population size and its age structure as well as in the POPG rate. In addition, it is important
to note that in a period when mortality is declining and fertility remains high, the growth rate of the population is rising
and the percentage of young people in the population is also rising. When fertility begins to decline, the percentage
of the working-age population increases and continues to rise for more than 5 decades, until fertility decline (Lee,
2011). Strictly speaking, Ahmad and Khan (2018) indicate that the process of demographic transition is completing
in four stages: The first stage is with a high mortality rate and a high birth rate; the second stage explains the period
of decline in the mortality rate; the characteristics of the third phase are a decline in the birth rate in response to
changes in behavior and social networks, and finally, the fourth phase shows the cessation of POPG where there is
an replacement level of fertility. In addition, Lee (2011) cites behavioral theories of fertility that has been developed
and tested by sociologists and economists, emphasizing that these theories have not proved practical for prediction.
Thus, according these theories, fertility in less developed countries is difficult to predict because unlike mortality
in a given country, fertility can begin to decline suddenly and rapidly and then equalize, and therefore can be very
difficult to predict the initial year of decline, the pace of decline, and the level at which it ceases. Becker’s theory was
very dominant in understanding the demographic transition, but was most concerned with the fertility transition (Lee,
2015). As is well known, its precise mechanisms and measures were concerned with how economic development could
increase children’s costs and lead to a decline in fertility despite rising incomes. In the demographic literature, there
have been ongoing debates on the causes of fertility decline. In this regard, Willekens (2015) mentions a dominant

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