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Breakpoint model application to Turkish population growth

Table 1. Estimation of breakpoint model for population growth in Türkiye, 1965 – 2021.
Variable Coefficient Std. error t‑Statistic Prob.
1965 – 1975----11 observations
C 0.1288 0.0835 1.5439 0.1311
CDR −0.0096 0.0028 −3.4351 0.0015
NMR −0.2076 0.0305 −6.8126 0.0000
TFR 0.1160 0.0139 8.3255 0.0000
1976 – 1983-----8 observations
C 0.5681 0.0306 18.557 0.0000
CDR 0.0242 0.0080 3.0408 0.0043
NMR 0.0638 0.0126 5.0669 0.0000
TFR 0.0080 0.0191 0.4237 0.6742
1984 – 2003-----20 observations
C −0.2486 0.0361 −6.8855 0.0000
CDR 0.0078 0.0193 0.4029 0.6893
NMR 0.0775 0.0492 1.5753 0.1237
TFR 0.2465 0.0413 5.9706 0.0000
2004 – 2012----9 observations
C −3.3897 0.5522 −6.1388 0.0000
CDR 0.4881 0.1298 3.7598 0.0006
NMR 0.1319 0.0106 12.473 0.0000
TFR 0.3136 0.1127 2.7823 0.0084
2013 – 2021-----9 observations
C 2.0629 3.1275 0.6596 0.5136
CDR −0.6869 0.2861 −2.4008 0.0215
NMR 0.1077 0.0359 2.9987 0.0048
TFR 0.8271 2.0888 0.3960 0.6944
R-squared 0.9967
Adjusted R-squared 0.9949
S.E. of regression 0.0180
Sum squared resid. 0.0120
Log likelihood 160.40
F-statistic 579.45
Prob (F-statistic) 0.0000
Mean dependent var 0.5729
S.D. dependent var 0.2529
Akaike info criterion −4.9265
Schwarz criterion −4.2096
Hannah-Quinn crit. −4.6479
Durbin-Watson stat 2.0280
***Dependent variable: Log (population growth). Method: Least squares with breaks. **Break type: Bai-Perron tests of L + 1 versus L sequentially determined breaks.
Breaks: 1976, 1984, 2004, and 2013. *Selection: Trimming 0.15, Max breaks 5, Sig. level 0.05. White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors and covariances.
Source: Author’s calculations

TFR, and NMR within all of these regimes, that is, prior and after 1976, 1984, 2004, and 2013. With these results, there is
some clear evidence that within the period after 1976, 1984, 2004, and 2013, the POPG is characterized with statistically
different trends compared to the period prior 1976, 1984, 2004, and 2013.

30 International Journal of Population Studies | 2021, Volume 7, Issue 1